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Gaza War and Politics
Israel’s political calendar is moving toward a new election as the Knesset begins the lengthy process of dissolving itself, with the poll must take place on or before October 27th, while the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces questions about whether he can hold on to power.
“In a new poll published on Thursday, Yashar, the party of former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, appeared for the first time as the second-largest party, overtaking Naftali Bennett's still unnamed party and ranking just behind Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud”
The Economist’s tracker projects Netanyahu’s current government at 54 seats with 61 seats needed for a majority, and it frames the question as whether “will Binyamin Netanyahu hold on to power?” amid Hamas attacks in October 2023 and Netanyahu’s “long and inconclusive wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.”
France 24 reports that the government coalition filed on Wednesday a bill to dissolve Parliament, with elections required within 90 days of the law’s adoption, and it says elections could be as early as the end of August.
France 24 also quotes Yaïr Lapid’s post on X, writing “We are ready. Together.” as he marks the decision to dissolve Parliament and the Together formation created with Naftali Bennett to defeat Netanyahu at the polls.
In parallel, Al-Jazeera Net reports that a Channel 13 poll put Likud at 21 seats, with the governing coalition at 51 seats and the opposition at 58 seats, while it also found only 25% of the public believe Israel is winning the war on the Gaza Strip.
Polls, Deadlock, and Doubts
Multiple polls depict a fragmented Knesset and continued deadlock, with The Economist saying Netanyahu’s governing coalition is on track to fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority and that opposition parties could join together after the election to beat Netanyahu and his allies.
The Economist’s tracker also notes that “A list needs to win only 3.25% of the national vote to receive any seats,” and it adds that votes for lists which fail to cross the threshold will be lost, potentially shifting the balance between blocs.
Anadolu Ajansı reports that a Maariv poll carried out with the Lazar Institute found the opposition could form a government if elections were held today, winning 61 seats compared with 49 for Netanyahu’s bloc, and it said Arab parties would win 10 seats.
Al-Jazeera Net reports that the same Channel 13 poll showed street-level pessimism about the Gaza war, with only 25% believing Israel is winning and 15% saying Hamas is winning.
In that Channel 13 poll, Al-Jazeera Net also reports that 51% of those surveyed oppose the “national unity government” that Netanyahu said he intends to form, while 29% support it.
What’s at Stake Next
As the Gaza war continues to shape public sentiment, Al-Jazeera Net reports that 49% of respondents were undecided on who is winning the war on the Gaza Strip, while it also found 25% believe Israel is winning and 15% say Hamas is winning.
“Likud, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, fell to 21 seats in a poll published by Israeli Channel 13 on Wednesday, and the poll also showed a decline in the public's confidence in Netanyahu's ability to lead a broad government, about three months before the expected election date”
The Economist ties the political stakes directly to Gaza and other fronts, saying Hamas attacks in October 2023 and Netanyahu’s “long and inconclusive wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran have damaged his standing and that of Likud,” and it projects Likud remaining the largest party even as the coalition loses support.
France 24 adds that Netanyahu, described as 76 and having governed longer than any other prime minister, is entangled in a long-running trial and awaiting a presidential pardon, while it says he has promised a “total victory” against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran.
France 24 also frames the opposition’s campaign themes around a “national commission of inquiry into October 7” and the passage of a law that would subject ultra-Orthodox Jews to military service, as it reports Lapid and Bennett intend to push these issues.
In the polling environment, the Economist’s tracker and Al-Jazeera Net’s Channel 13 results both point to a narrow path to government formation, with The Economist emphasizing the 61-seat majority requirement and Al-Jazeera Net reporting a governing coalition of 51 seats versus an opposition of 58 seats.
