Netanyahu’s Likud And Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Run Neck And Neck Ahead Of Israel’s Oct. 27 Election

Election math and blocs

Polls ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 elections show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and former Israeli army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar running neck and neck, with Al-Monitor projecting both camps at around 20 seats each.

Tight race in polls5 of 6 outlets reported it · not in jpost.com▾

Al-Monitor said Israel’s proportional representation system requires a candidate tasked by the president with forming a government to secure support of at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

Al-Monitor reported that polls over the past four months have generally given Gadi Eisenkot’s center-right Yashar an edge over Netanyahu’s Likud, while the gap between the parties and between their respective blocs has narrowed.

Yashar edge in polls1 of 2 outlets reported it · not in NBC News▾

Al-Monitor said Eisenkot and fellow opposition leaders Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid and Avigdor Lieberman have all said they would not include Arab parties in a future coalition, even as polls project the two Arab parties could win 13 to 15 Knesset seats.

Arab parties ruled out1 of 2 outlets reported it · not in NBC News▾

Al-Monitor added that another round of elections, which it described as Israel’s seventh in under four years, remains a distinct possibility if neither bloc can form a majority.

Reporting for this sectionAl-Monitor

Anti-defection rules loom

Times of Israel said anti-defection laws could shape coalition talks after Tuesday’s vote, because strict restrictions introduced in 1991 bar lawmakers who defect from their parties from serving as ministers or deputy ministers while remaining in the Knesset. Times of Israel quoted Assaf Shapira, head of the Israel Democracy Institute’s Political Reform Program, saying, "Defection carries severe sanctions," and said the rules render defectors’ "political future very, very uncertain." Times of Israel described how Section 6A of Basic Law: The Knesset and related provisions establish that MKs formally declared defectors cannot join another existing parliamentary faction for the remainder of the Knesset’s term, though they can retain their seats as independent MKs.

Times of Israel said the law does not automatically strip defectors of their Knesset seats and does not prohibit them from voting in favor of a government led by another political party. Times of Israel said Section 59 of the Knesset Law allows collective breakaways, with at least two MKs comprising one-third or more of a party able to split off and establish a new faction without incurring defection penalties.

October 7 reckoning and turnout

Reuters reported that at Kibbutz Be’eri, Gal Cohen said the idea that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be re-elected on Tuesday was painful, and Cohen said, "If this government will stay, many hearts and minds will be broken." Reuters said Be’eri residents described the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack as Israel’s deadliest single day, and Reuters reported that one-in-ten residents of the kibbutz were among the 1,200 people killed and that dozens were among the 251 taken hostage to Gaza. Reuters said Netanyahu rejected blame for the breach and resisted calls for an independent investigation, and Reuters reported that Netanyahu maintained that Israel’s wars against Hamas in Gaza and its allies in Lebanon and Iran will result in a more peaceful Middle East.

Haaretz said the October Council, representing families of hostages held in the Gaza Strip, issued a final public appeal on the eve of Israel’s election calling on voters to "remember October 7 when you enter the voting booth." Haaretz said the October Council demanded "a state commission of inquiry, with no exceptions and no one given special treatment" so that such a failure never happens again.

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