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New York Times/Siena Poll Shows James Talarico Leading Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Race
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New York Times/Siena poll shows Talarico ahead of Paxton by seven points. Survey of likely voters conducted Oct 27–Nov 1 with 3.4% margin of error.
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Talarico leads Paxton
A New York Times/Siena poll found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43% among likely voters in the Texas U.S. Senate race, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The poll surveyed likely voters across seven Senate battlegrounds through Nov. 1, and it showed Texas Republicans making up 38% of respondents, Democrats making up 30% and Independents making up 26%.
The poll also reported that 62% of respondents said they had already voted, and it said early voting had already ended with the last chance to vote on Tuesday.
Election Day was described as being just hours away, and the polling in Texas was said to open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m.
USA TODAY said the 7-point lead was outside the poll's 3.3 percentage-point margin of error and that the poll was conducted among 1,215 Texas voters from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1.
Closing arguments and turnout
Texas Republicans and Democrats made closing appeals as the race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico remained within the margin of error, with the Texas Tribune describing it as a contest where both candidates crisscrossed the state to turn out supporters.
Talarico told a crowd in San Antonio Oct. 24, "To win this election, we have to execute. We have to leave it all on the field. We have to win."
Ted Cruz warned in a podcast on Friday that "Understand, we could lose Texas," and he said "The Democrats are massively out-turning-out the Republicans."
Paxton campaigned by telling supporters, "Every poll shows it's gonna come down to the wire," and he urged Republicans to mobilize ahead of Tuesday's vote by saying, "Make sure we get every Republican out to vote."
The Texas Tribune framed the race as dependent on multiple voter blocs, including supporters of Sen. John Cornyn still on the fence and Latino voters along the border, as returns come in Tuesday.
What a Texas shift means
The BBC said polls suggest James Talarico, described as 37-year-old, may be on the verge of turning a Texas Senate seat blue for the first time since 1988.
Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas-based Republican campaign strategist, said, "If the Democrats do pull it off, I think it's going to cause a lot of soul searching and a lot of psychological damage to the Republican Party in Texas and nationwide," as the race was framed as a crucial prize for control of Congress.
CBS News said midterm elections in Texas were on track to cost a billion dollars, with more than half spent on the U.S. Senate campaign, and it described the contest as potentially the most expensive non-presidential race in American history.
KSL said Republicans currently held a 53-47 advantage in the Senate, and it said Democrats needed to pick up at least four new seats for a majority and would need at least five if they lose Michigan.
KSL also said early voting totals were approaching 50 million heading into the weekend, and it noted that about 112 million voted in total in the 2022 midterm elections.