Europeupdated 18m ago2 min read
Poll Shows Marine Le Pen Leads Jean-Luc Mélenchon Ahead of France’s 2027 Presidential Election
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Toluna Harris Interactive poll shows Le Pen at 34–36% in first round, Mélenchon second. Le Pen and Mélenchon leading in multiple scenarios for the 2027 first round.
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Le Pen and Mélenchon lead
Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon strengthened their positions in voting intentions ahead of France's 2027 presidential election, with a Toluna Harris Interactive survey finding Le Pen at between 34% and 36% in the first round and Mélenchon at between 18% and 19%. The poll projected that Le Pen would reach a second round against Mélenchon in all five scenarios examined by the pollster, and it projected Le Pen would defeat Mélenchon in a potential second-round contest. Le Pen was also credited with a decisive 68% to 32% against Mélenchon in the second round in the Harris Interactive scenarios.
The survey also placed Le Pen's lead alongside a weakened political centre as President Emmanuel Macron approaches the end of his second and final five-year term, with the political centre described as weakened and the economy described as struggling. The pollster said the online survey was conducted between November 3 and 5 among a sample of 2,101 people registered on electoral lists, representative of the French population aged 18 and over.
Lisnard closes in
David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes, continued to gain support in the Harris Interactive scenarios, reaching 9% of voting intentions in certain first-round configurations. Lisnard was three points behind Édouard Philippe when both were included in the first round and drew level with Gabriel Attal in another scenario. Édouard Philippe was credited with 11 to 14% of the votes, five to seven points separate him from the LFI candidate, and Raphaël Glucksmann was polling between 11% and 13%.
El Mundo said Lisnard, as a possible candidate of the moderate right with his party Nouvelle Énergie, was rising rapidly to 9% and was dubbed by the media as the great “disturber” of the presidential race. Le Pen delegated to her protégé Jordan Bardella, who told RTL, “There is no relationship between the two elections and we must respect the vote of the American people.”
Primaries and second-round stakes
The poll results also fed into a debate over joint primaries, with Riviera Radio reporting that the survey suggested growing support for a joint primary election among centre-right parties, with 66% of respondents favouring the idea.
“Stand at the door, wide open, and we could even compel him to leave.”
A Harris Interactive poll for M6/RTL surveyed supporters of seven political parties and found that supporters of the National Rally were almost unanimously convinced of their candidate's victory, at 93%.
Édouard Philippe, winner? Horizons supporters (50%) and ecologists (25%) mainly considered Édouard Philippe the winner, while 83% of LFI supporters believed that Jean-Luc Mélenchon would win.
The poll gave Le Pen 58% against Édouard Philippe and 60% against Raphaël Glucksmann in hypothetical second-round match-ups.
El Mundo framed immigration as a top priority ahead of the 2027 presidential election, and it quoted Le Pen saying, “Stand at the door, wide open, and we could even compel him to leave.”