Potential Tropical Cyclone One Could Bring Flooding Rains From Texas to Louisiana

As of 11:00 a.m. on June 16, the National Hurricane Center advisory described a Potential Tropical Cyclone in south Texas, with the disturbance designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One and expected to emerge over the Gulf briefly Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

“Tropical storm watch issued for parts of Gulf Coast A woman was killed amid flooding in Texas on Monday, officials said”

ABC News

ABC News reported that a tropical storm watch was issued for the Gulf Coast from southeast Texas—including Brazosport, Galveston and Port Arthur—to parts of southwestern Louisiana, with Potential Tropical Cyclone One forecast to become a tropical storm later Tuesday or early Wednesday.

ABC News

The system could strengthen into Tropical Storm Arthur by Wednesday afternoon, and the Montgomery Advertiser said Arthur would be the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season if it forms.

The ABC News report also said a hurricane is not expected to form, while the CNN report described the system as centered about 35 miles south-southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas, as of 4 p.m. CT.

CNN added that tropical-storm force winds (40 mph or greater) are expected across the warning area from Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana, as the more widespread threat remains heavy rainfall.

ABC News said a woman was killed amid flooding in Texas on Monday, after a 911 call from Bandera County described her car being swept away into a creek by floodwaters and the sheriff’s office later found her dead in the vehicle “several miles downstream.”

The CNN report said flood watches for the dangerous setup have been issued for more than 27 million people from South Texas to central and southern Mississippi, and it cited a Level 3 out of 4 threat of flash flooding for each day from Tuesday to Thursday in parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

ABC11 News

CNN also reported that rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour are possible at times in some of these areas, and that another 4 to 8 inches of rain could fall through Thursday from much of southern Louisiana to central and southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama, with a few spots up to a foot.

In Alabama, the Montgomery Advertiser said rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts up to 12 inches, are possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region, including portions of Alabama.

The Clarion-Ledger quoted AccuWeather Vice President of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin saying “a high risk to lives and property exists through at least Thursday from Texas to Mississippi,” with flooding risk continuing well past landfall.

Forecasters emphasized that even if the system does not become a named storm, it can still produce significant impacts, with the Clarion-Ledger saying the bigger concern is heavy rainfall “whether it turns into a named storm or not.”

The Montgomery Advertiser said the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday, while tropical moisture spreads well east of the center into Alabama.

WBMA said the National Hurricane Center expects widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts approaching 12 inches, possible from Texas eastward through Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday.

WBMA also warned that “If the forecast holds, flooding will become the primary concern across much of Central Alabama from Thursday into Friday,” and it said the most significant impacts are expected to arrive as deep tropical moisture spreads into Alabama Wednesday night through Friday.

Yale Climate Connections added that the NHC designates this as a Potential Tropical Cyclone because it is not yet a tropical depression or tropical storm with a well-defined center of circulation, but it is close enough to land to produce significant impacts.