Full story
Crypto revenue cools
Robinhood Markets reported second-quarter results while crypto trading cooled, with crypto revenue down 38% year over year to $100 million from $160 million, even as the company beat Wall Street’s second-quarter expectations.
In extended trading, Robinhood shares fell about 4% after the brokerage reported adjusted earnings of $0.62 a share and record revenue of $1.31 billion, narrowly topping the $1.29 billion consensus forecast.
The company said it accelerated its product rollout with the launch of Robinhood Chain for tokenized U.S. stocks for eligible European customers, as it pushed to bring traditional financial assets onchain.
Vlad Tenev, Chairman and CEO of Robinhood, said in a statement, "Whether it's the Robinhood Chain, Robinhood Ventures, or Trump Accounts, our product velocity is focused on one goal: making everyone an owner."
The same report tied the crypto slowdown to transaction revenue weakness, noting that crypto revenue fell 38% year over year to $100 million from $160 million while options, equities and prediction markets activity offset the decline.
Markets watch prediction
Ahead of the earnings call, TechStock² said the focus shifted from increased customer trading activity to whether prediction markets might offset crypto revenue without impacting margins.
The same article reported that projected revenue was seen at $1.21 billion to $1.22 billion, with earnings expected between 39 cents and 41 cents per share, and it framed the outlook as sales growth of 22%-24% alongside forecast EPS declines of 2%-7%.
TechStock² also cited activity filings showing equity volume of approximately $906.8 billion as of June 25, options contracts at 729.9 million, and Robinhood-app crypto volume at $17.3 billion representing a 38% decrease compared to the entire previous-year quarter.
It added that event contracts were the most pronounced offset, with combined volume for April, May and early June reaching approximately 12.3 billion contracts, outpacing the whole first quarter by close to 40%.
Reuters, as quoted in the same piece, said Robinhood Chain launched on July 1, following the end of the quarter, and it included crypto head Johann Kerbrat’s line that the firm was "bringing the best of traditional finance and DeFi together."
Chain launch and bets
A separate scanx.trade analysis said prediction markets on Kalshi suggested CEO Vlad Tenev would emphasize Credit Card adoption with 800k customers, Retirement AUC growth to $27.4 billion, and the new Robinhood Chain Layer-2 network.
That same scanx.trade piece reported that "Credit Card" led the board at 97%, followed by "Retirement" at 96%, and it linked the retirement theme to Retirement Assets Under Custody (AUC) growing 90% to $27.4 billion.
It also said traders assigned a 95% probability that Tenev will discuss "Robinhood Chain," describing it as the company’s Arbitrum Layer-2 network launched on July 1 to settle tokenized stocks across 120 countries.
The analysis framed the crypto backdrop by stating that "Bitcoin" trades at only 51%, reflecting a 47% revenue drop in crypto transaction revenue in Q1 due to cooled spot volumes.
In the same scanx.trade write-up, it noted that Polymarket assigns an 81% probability that Robinhood will beat GAAP EPS estimates, while Kalshi’s "Kalshi" mention probability was 12% as traders focused on infrastructure and retirement rather than spot Bitcoin trading.
