Shang Wu Says Rising US Treasury Yields Could Trigger Bitcoin Supercycle

A crypto analyst at BitMEX, Shang Wu, linked rising government bond yields to a coming “structural” shift that he said could create a Bitcoin “supercycle” of rising prices.

“Bitget App Smart Trading Buy crypto Markets Trading Futures Earn Center More Bitget News Powell's Jackson Hole Speech: Catalyst for Bitcoin's Supercycle”

Bitget

Wu said the yield on the 30-year US Treasury broke past 5.14% on Tuesday, while the Bank of Japan’s 10-year government bond yield touched 2.8%.

Cointelegraph

He argued these yields are unsustainable in the long term and will force governments to choose between debasing their currencies and a “sovereign debt collapse,” while also saying that “For Bitcoin, the upcoming volatility will be chaotic in the short term.”

The analysis came as the US national debt crosses $39 trillion, with Wu pointing to growing geopolitical tensions and “the ongoing war in Iran” as drivers of higher energy prices and an inflationary spike.

Wu also said central banks are “backed into a corner,” and that they must choose between a sovereign debt collapse and debasing their currencies.

A separate TradingView analysis asked whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been broken and whether the bull market has ended, pointing to Bitcoin reaching a high near USD 126,200 in October, eighteen months after the April 2024 halving.

It said Bitcoin then fell more than 30%, and cited veteran analyst Peter Brandt forecasting Bitcoin could fall to USD 25,000 in the coming months.

Cryptonews.net

On-chain analytics founder João Wedson of Alphractal pointed to the SOPR trend signal, saying it indicates the end of Bitcoin's bull market, and the article described how SOPR historically marked turning points by tracking shifts between taking profits and selling driven by losses.

The piece also reported that Grayscale predicted a new all-time high for Bitcoin in June 2026, while Grayscale’s Monday report said BTC would reach a new high in the first half of 2026 citing rising macroeconomic demand due to currency devaluation and a favorable regulatory environment in the United States.

It added that in December, US Bitcoin ETFs backed by BlackRock, Fidelity and others together held more than 1.30 million BTC (about USD 114.13 billion), a 309% increase since their debut in January 2024.

Another thread of coverage centered on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with the Bitget-linked report saying investors were watching for clues about whether a rate cut in September is imminent and whether there would be a lasting shift in the Fed’s framework.

“Rising government bond yields signal a coming “structural” shift that will create a Bitcoin “supercycle” of rising prices, as investors flee debasing assets for one that cannot be inflated, according to Shang Wu, a senior research analyst at crypto exchange BitMEX”

Cryptonews.net

The article said the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Beth Hammack, would not support a rate cut if the meeting were tomorrow, and it also quoted Jeffrey Schmid of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City echoing that caution while emphasizing openness before the September decision.

It reported that market probabilities priced in a 73.3% chance of a 0.25% cut, and it said it is also expected that Powell will formally retire the 2020 policy of average inflation targeting.

The same report framed the stakes for crypto by saying Powell’s Jackson Hole speech could define his legacy and that “a single line from Powell can move stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin globally,” citing analyst Bull Theory.

It also stated that Bitcoin was trading at 113,144 dollars at the time of writing, while Remington suggested conditions were even better this year and Nic Puckrin said “It is more macroeconomic uncertainty driving markets lower than cryptocurrency-specific factors.”