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Long Pause Ends
A study published in the Journal of Pacific Archaeology links the end of the “Long Pause” to a long period of severe drought that helped drive Polynesian migration across the Pacific.
“Around CE 900 to 1050, the pattern changed.”
The research says the ancestors of modern Polynesians reached Samoa and Tonga around 3,000 years ago, then for roughly 1,700 years long-distance expansion across the eastern Pacific almost stopped.
Around CE 900 to 1050, the pattern changed, and within about 250 years Polynesian voyagers settled islands across the eastern Pacific, including Tahiti, Hawai’i, and eventually reached the Americas.
To reconstruct rainfall patterns, scientists from the University of Southampton and the University of East Anglia studied ancient climate records preserved in lake and swamp sediments, collecting mud samples from Samoa, Tonga, the Cook Islands, and French Polynesia.
The evidence pointed to a long dry period in Samoa and Tonga before and during the start of the migrations, with the researchers describing it as the worst in about 2,000 years for those islands.
Drought, Water, and Voices
David Sear, professor of physical geography at the University of Southampton and lead author of the study, said: "We have confirmed the theory that the end of the Long Pause coincided with a period of mega drought in the homeland islands of Samoa and Tonga – and also a period of increasing rainfall in the receiving islands."
Sear added that "As they headed east, they found wetter islands with nobody on them," framing the shift as a contrast between homeland conditions and receiving islands.
Mark Peaple, a research fellow in paleoclimate at the University of Southampton, explained the method by saying: "Hydrogen in rainwater contains heavier and lighter isotopes, the proportion of which is determined by the amount of precipitation in the tropics, which we were able to analyse in the mud," tying the geochemical evidence to rainfall.
Manoj Joshi, professor of climate dynamics at the University of East Anglia, said the team’s climate modeling showed that "changes in sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean over many decades drove an eastward shift in the vast rain belt" affecting Samoa and Tonga.
The study’s drought signal is described as severe and prolonged just before and during the migration period, and the University of Southampton summary says the driest period in the last 2,000 years forced island populations to move.
What’s at Stake Next
The research argues that drought was not the only driver, with the University of Southampton noting that an increasing population meant resources had to stretch further and that advanced sailing technology may have developed by this point.
“adapting from U to V-shaped hulls and improving their rigging”
It also points to canoe design changes from U to V-shaped hulls and improved rigging that allowed crews to sail into the wind, which the study presents as part of the tipping point making the costs of sailing east worth risking.
The University of Southampton summary says the research is published in the Journal of Pacific Archaeology and describes the Long Pause as a 1,700-year period during which the ancestors of modern Polynesians refrained from voyaging beyond Samoa and Tonga.
The Daily Echo frames the same timeline by saying the Long Pause lasted 1,700 years and changed between 900 and 1050 AD, when they began migrating eastward and settled the remaining island archipelagos of the South Pacific within 250 years.
The stakes for future work, as described in the Archaeology News Online Magazine account, are that researchers should focus on individual islands rather than broad regional patterns, using better dating of archaeological sites, improved climate records, and closer work with Pacific Island communities.