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Talarico Leads Paxton In Texas Senate Polls Ahead Of Early Voting
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James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in recent Texas Senate polls. Lead narrows ahead of early voting across multiple surveys.
Texas Senate Race Tightens
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate polling, with one University of Texas/ Texas Politics Project survey showing Talarico ahead 50% to 47% over Paxton. The survey of 861 likely Texas voters had a margin of error of 3.34% and Democratic enthusiasm measured at 53% was higher than Republican enthusiasm at 37%. The Texas Politics Project poll found Talarico leading Paxton by 3 percentage points among likely voters, 50 percent to 47 percent, and it also cited a ReconMR/Siena poll with Talarico ahead by 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent.
A Marist University poll showed Talarico leading by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent, and it tied the tightening to a race that has remained competitive for much of the 2026 cycle. The Texas Senate race was tightening with Talarico leading Paxton 50% to 47%, within the poll's 3.3-point margin of error, and it described early voting as approaching.
Enthusiasm, Bases, and Polls
Texas Politics Project director Jim Henson said Democrats were in "the most competitive cycle that we've seen in the state in a long time," and he warned that the result was not a prediction of winning.
91% of Talarico supporters and 84% of Paxton supporters were not very likely or not at all likely to change their minds, while it described the poll as conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 5.
92% of Republican likely voters picked Paxton and 98% of Democrats picked Talarico, and it said independent likely voters preferred Talarico over Paxton 69% to 11%.
ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren said, "Not surprisingly, both candidates are holding on to their partisan bases," and it reported likely independent voters favor Talarico by two-to-one, 60-30%.
Marist Poll said the Texas survey of 1,196 Texas registered voters was conducted October 8th through October 11th, 2026, and it reported results for likely voters were statistically significant within ±4.9 percentage points.
What Comes Next
Early voting in Texas begins on Monday, and The Hill said early voting begins in Texas on Monday while it described the governor's race as also tightening. The Hill reported that TPP’s poll had Gina Hinojosa leading Greg Abbott by 1 point, 49 percent to 48 percent, while ReconMR/Siena had Abbott up by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent, and Marist showed Abbott up by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. President Trump's approval rating in Texas was upside down, 46% approve to 54% disapprove, among likely voters, and it linked the polling environment to impressions of President Donald Trump and financial worries.
“Paxton has accepted none of them, even though a campaign spokesman said in July the candidates would debate.”
Talarico accepted four debate invitations, from CNN, Hearst, Nexstar and WFAA, and it said he challenged Paxton to a debate on Fox News. Paxton accepted none of the debate invitations, and it added that the Senate polls were tightening with early voting days away.