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Tropical Storm Melissa Update
Tropical Storm Melissa developed Tuesday in the central/east-central Caribbean.
“Tropical Storm Melissa has begun bringing heavy rain to Hispaniola, raising flooding concerns in the Caribbean.”
The storm is moving west at roughly 14–15 mph with sustained winds near 50 mph.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for southern to southwestern Haiti and a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica.
Several outlets report the storm will slow and linger between Jamaica and Haiti through late week before turning northwest to north.
Melissa is expected to strengthen toward hurricane intensity by the weekend, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Some coverage specifies geography differently: the Washington Post notes the hurricane watch includes Port-au-Prince, while other outlets describe it broadly as southern Haiti.
Forecasters warn of a slow-moving, strengthening system bringing days of hazardous weather to Hispaniola and Jamaica.
Severe Weather Warnings and Impacts
Hazards are severe and potentially life-threatening.
Authorities warn of flash flooding, landslides, and mudslides across mountainous terrain in southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.
Rainfall guidance varies by outlet.
Asian coverage underscores the gravity of the situation.
South China Morning Post warns of life-threatening flooding and advises evacuations to higher ground.
AccuWeather highlights the possibility of extreme rainfall totals up to 30 inches in worst-case scenarios.
Most mainstream and local outlets project 5 to 10 inches of rain over southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic.
Higher localized amounts up to 12 to 14 or more inches are possible.
Lighter rainfall totals are expected for Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and Aruba.
Impacts have already begun in the Dominican Republic, where traffic was disrupted and professional baseball games were canceled in Santo Domingo.
Tropical Storm Melissa Outlook
The forecast track and intensity remain uncertain, with multiple scenarios in play.
“Tropical Storm Melissa is moving westward across the Southern Caribbean and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by the end of the week, potentially reaching Category 2 or 3.”
Some outlets say Melissa could slow and stall for days near Haiti and Jamaica and then turn north, becoming a hurricane by the weekend.
Others outline more divergent paths, including a westward drift that could threaten Central America if intensification is slower.
Intensity guidance also varies: WPDE projects potential Category 2–3 strength, while other outlets are more conservative, emphasizing environmental hurdles like wind shear and dry air before significant strengthening.
Contextually, this is the first named Caribbean storm since 1997, adding seasonal significance as Melissa becomes the 13th named storm of 2025.
Regional Storm Impact Overview
Beyond Haiti and the Dominican Republic, rainfall and swell effects will extend across the region.
Multiple sources highlight the ABC Islands, Puerto Rico, and Aruba for lighter but still hazardous rain and gusty winds.
Swells will affect Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba.
Reconnaissance flights by NOAA and the Air Force are planned to sample the storm and refine intensity estimates.
Local authorities advise residents near the storm’s path to monitor updates and prepare.
U.S. Weather Impact Forecast
Most outlets agree there is no immediate threat to the U.S. mainland.
“These troughs will also create wind shear that prevents any threat to the U.S.”
Some warn of indirect coastal effects in Florida later.
WPDE says U.S. troughs should generate wind shear that prevents any threat to the U.S.
AccuWeather and FOX 35 Orlando caution that the Bahamas and South Florida could see indirect impacts like higher surf and beach erosion next week.
Local U.S. coverage narrows that message further, stating Tampa Bay and the Gulf Coast are not expected to be affected.
Forecasters still urge vigilance as Melissa lingers in the Caribbean before eventually turning away.