Climateupdated 39m ago3 min read
UN Environment Programme Says Overshoot of 1.5C Is Imminent and Unavoidable
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Overshoot of 1.5C is imminent and unavoidable due to decades of insufficient action. UNEP says annual emissions cuts near 6% are needed to restore 1.5C by 2100.
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Overshoot now unavoidable
The UN Environment Programme said a temporary breach of the 1.5C global-warming limit is now “inevitable” following “decades of insufficient climate action,” and UNEP said exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit is “imminent and unavoidable.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video message that the world could no longer avoid overshooting the 1.5C limit and that the consequences were already devastating, adding “Overshoot is not surrender.” UNEP’s 2026 Emissions Gap report, titled “The point of return,” said the “task now” is to minimise the size and scale of a temperature “overshoot” and to “establish a credible return path to 1.5C by the end of the century.”
UNEP said even the “lowest possible” overshoot scenario for 1.5C would first see global warming peak at around 1.7-1.8C in the middle of the century before declining, and it said that scenario would require global emissions cuts of 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035. UNEP said current climate pledges, even if fully implemented, would only reduce emissions by 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035 relative to 2025 levels, while UNEP said there was still “ample opportunity to accelerate action.”
Cuts needed, gap persists
UNEP said the “lowest possible” overshoot pathway would require cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all compared with 2025 levels.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said, “We must pull out all the stops to minimise peak warming and return to 1.5C by the end of the century. This is possible,” in remarks accompanying the report.
UNEP said the world is on course for 2.8C of warming this century under current policies, and UNEP said full implementation of national climate pledges would limit warming to 2.6C.
UNEP said its projections had deteriorated, attributing this to the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement under President Donald Trump and revised estimates of historical emissions.
UNEP co-author Anne Ohlhoff said the US exit from the Paris accord meant that its previous national climate target was no longer included in UNEP’s global projections, and she said the country had also dropped its net-zero emissions goal.
U.S. singled out, stakes rise
UNEP said emissions in 2025 were “comparable” to those of 2024, and it said global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 totalled 58.4bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e). UNEP said that among the top six emitters, only the US saw a notable increase in 2025, and it said emissions in the US grew by 133m tonnes of CO2e (MtCO2e) in 2025 due to increased electricity demand and a “rebound” of coal power. The Economic Times said the UN’s update of climate calculations projected that if countries do all they promise in their climate fighting plans submitted to the United Nations, by 2100 the globe would be 2.6 degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial times.
The Economic Times quoted UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen saying, “The report's message is clear,” and it quoted her saying that “Drastically cutting global carbon emissions - by 18 per cent by 2030 and 69 per cent by 2040 - is the only way that we can get back to a semblance of a reality that is still largely manageable without major impacts.” The New York Times said the Emissions Gap Report identified the United States as an outlier among the nations responsible for the vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions, and it said emissions overall had slowed down in 2025 “with the United States of America being the major exception.”