Climateupdated 37m ago3 min read
UN Warns United States Withdrawal From Paris Agreement Worsens Climate Goals, Projects 1.2°C Warming
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United States outlier among rich nations, slowing global climate progress by abandoning a Paris pledge. Global warming will exceed 1.5°C; policy focus shifts to limiting overshoot and rapid cuts.
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1.5C window closes
The United Nations Environment Programme said the world is losing ground in the fight to curb climate change, and it projected that even if countries do what they promise, Earth will likely warm another 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) above current temperatures. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world is falling “dangerously short” of even the revised goals, and UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said “Drastically cutting global carbon emissions — by 18% by 2030 and 69% by 2040 —” is “the only way” to get back to a manageable path. The UN report said the formal withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions produced a “worse outcome than expected last year,” and it blamed the United States for increased emissions last year.
The report also said the 124 countries that increased emissions added 189 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2025, and it said 70% of that increase came from the U.S. Australian climate scientist Bill Hare said the United States is “hell-for-leather trying to block renewables while actively promoting and subsidizing dirty coal,” and he said the report’s scientific basis was sound.
Overshoot becomes plan B
The UN Emissions Gap report said avoiding 1.5 C of warming above pre-industrial levels is now impossible, and it proposed a plan to limit peak warming to 1.7-1.8 C and then bring temperatures back to 1.5 C by the end of the 21st century. UN Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen said on a call with reporters, “We are now saying this window has closed, but we can open it again by making the overshoot as brief as possible,” and she framed the task as limiting the period of warming “overshoot.” The report said the lowest overshoot scenario would keep peak warming between 1.7 and 1.8 degrees C and return global average temperatures to at or below 1.5 C by 2100, but it required global greenhouse gas emissions to be slashed by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 relative to 2025 levels.
The report said fulfillment of existing emissions reduction pledges would only yield a 5-to-8% emissions cut by 2030 and an 11-to-15% reduction by 2035, and it said that would be associated with a peak warming of about 2.6 degrees C. Climate scientist Michael Mann said each additional fraction of a degree above 1.5 C raises the risk of irreversible changes, and he said an additional 0.1 C “Permanently cuts global GDP by roughly 1.2% (over $1.2 trillion annually)” and pushes about 140 million more people into life-threatening, dangerously hot climates.
COP31 stakes and pressure
UN reports tied the new pathway to negotiations at COP31, and CNN said the annual UN Emissions Gap report was designed to inform decision makers headed into the next round of global climate talks in Turkey, known as COP31, next month. UN chief António Guterres warned that “the world can no longer avoid exceeding the 1.5°C limit,” and he said “the consequences are already devastating… deadly floods, intense heatwaves, and raging wildfires while lives are lost, economies are paralyzed, and inequality deepens.” The UN report said the world is on track for 2.6C warming this century even if governments fully meet their latest climate commitments, and it said maintaining current policies would lead to a 2.8°C rise in global temperatures.
Bill Hare said governments must start immediately enacting policies that ensure the rapid reduction of fossil fuel use, and he linked the urgency to the need to keep overshoot as brief and short as possible. The UN report said the United States was “the major exception” among Group of 20 industrialized nations, and it said the United States’ “abandonment” of a crucial climate pledge increased the odds that the world will warm more than previously estimated.