WMO Confirms El Niño, Warns of 80% Chance June-August Extreme Weather

The United Nations’ weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), said El Niño is confirmed and set to fuel more extreme weather, with an 80 per cent chance of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August and a 90 per cent probability thereafter.

“The United Nations’ climate agency has warned of an increased risk of extreme weather in the coming weeks and months due to the emerging El Nino weather pattern”

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WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, “The footprint of an El Niño travels far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean,” linking the Pacific Ocean-warming phenomenon to impacts on agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods.

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UN chief António Guterres stressed, “The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” as the WMO warned the event will bring above-average temperatures “nearly everywhere” and increase the risk of heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

The WMO said tropical Pacific Ocean temperature readings are “at 6°C above average,” and it warned there is “no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events,” while noting it can amplify associated impacts.

The WMO also urged countries to bolster early warning systems, saying “Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.”

The WMO said it found most models projected El Niño to return in the ocean and atmosphere to be “at least moderate” and possibly strong, while forecasters remained in a window of uncertainty.

Celeste Saulo said, “The spread is large,” adding that “There are models that are not providing any indication of a strong El Niño, while others are doing so.”

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António Guterres told the world it “must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” warning that “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.”

The WMO said unusually high temperatures were forecast in nearly all parts of the planet for the next three months, and it warned of a greater probability of extreme rain and drought.

Scientists usually associate El Niño with heavier rain in parts of South America, the southern US, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while drier conditions typically hit Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of south Asia.

The WMO said sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific used as a reference were approaching El Niño thresholds in late April to mid-May, fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions, and it said the atmospheric component was consistent with development.

Celeste Saulo said, “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.”

The WMO warned that El Niño events can last around nine to 12 months, and it said the naturally occurring pattern can bring heavy rainfall, exacerbate droughts, and increase the risk of heatwaves.

It also said early-warning systems have saved lives even as fossil fuel pollution has made extreme weather more violent, and it pointed to cuts in aid budgets by major foreign donors including the UK and US.

In Geneva, Saulo stressed that “Climate finance is not at its peak,” while saying early-warning systems “are a priority,” and António Guterres argued that “The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis.”