Police Scotland could cut officer numbers to lowest level in 20 years

Police Scotland could cut officer numbers to lowest level in 20 years Image source, Press Association Image caption, The warning comes against a backdrop of increased pressure on police budgets By David Cowan Scotland home affairs correspondent Published 1 hour ago Police Scotland will have to cut officer numbers to their lowest level in 23 years if it gets a "devastating" flat cash funding settlement, an oversight body has warned. The Scottish Police Authority (SPA) says recruitment would have to stop, taking officer numbers down to 15,600 - the lowest figure since 2003-04. Police Scotland is currently in line to receive a standstill budget allocation for next year from the Scottish government, but is asking for a £110m increase to maintain current staffing levels and respond to an increasing workload. The government said it delivered record levels of funding for policing this year and is discussing next year's budget with the force. The SPA's dire predictions are contained in an uncharacteristically undiplomatic submission to the Scottish Parliament's criminal justice committee. The authority says the creation of Scotland's national police force has already resulted in savings of £2.5bn since 2013, but high levels of inflation have driven up wages and other costs. Officer numbers have fallen by more than 700 since 2022-23, and the SPA argues further reductions are not sustainable. "Policing is currently under severe strain," the authority says. "Demand has changed, increasing in both complexity and volume in some areas. Trust and confidence in policing is decreasing." The SPA says a flat cash settlement would result in an £80m budget deficit, requiring a workforce reduction of 958 officers and 302 staff. On top of that, officer numbers would have to be cut by a further 400 the following year. "Given the extreme nature of the actions required to deliver these savings, a flat cash funding scenario is not achievable in year and would devastate the service," the submission says. Forty five Scottish police officers suspended over alleged crimes against women Published 8 October Police watchdog calls for live facial recognition to tackle football disorder Published 20 August Closure of region's last road policing department a 'sad day' Published 18 September Police Scotland has told the committee its workforce has fallen from 24,000 in 2013 to just under 22,500. It has backed up its request for a funding hike with a barrage of alarming statistics. The force says 999 calls have increased by 10%, crimes involving violence against women and girls are averaging 200 a day, and domestic abuse has gone up by 10.4%. Referrals related to online child abuse rose to 2,276 in 2025 and are projected to reach 4,000 this year, with roughly a quarter requiring enforcement action. The number of registered sex offenders being managed in the community has gone up to 7,451, a 56% increase since 2015, and bail offences are up 25%. Last year, more than 230,000 callouts related to mental health accounted for 18% of the incidents dealt with by the police. Of those, 85% did not involve a crime. Image source, Press Association Image caption, Neil Gray said the government will continue to work with Police Scotland The police say the threat of state-sponsored criminal activity is "at its highest level" and civil unrest has resulted in a 19% hike in deployments to protests. The number of Police Scotland officers currently on modified duties because of health issues now stands at 1,656. Against this backdrop, the force is asking for an extra £78.8m to meet its current commitments and a further £31.8m to support an investment strategy. "Without targeted investment, we will prioritise emergency response and the highest threat, risk and harm to keep people safe," it says. "Prevention and early interventions will be limited, ultimately increasing costly reactive responses at the point of crisis. "Pressure on the policing workforce will be intensified." Justice Secretary Neil Gray said: "Our police perform a vital role keeping Scotland's communities safe, which is why we have invested record funding of more than £1.7bn for policing in 2026-27. "We will continue to work with Police Scotland and the Scottish Police Authority to understand their 2027-28 budget requirements which will feed into the Scottish government budget process." Related topics Scotland Police Scotland Scottish government