Iran fortifies nuclear sites, rebuilds missile arsenal as it prepares for the next war - analysis

Satellite images show that Iran is fortifying various locations as it may be preparing for renewed war, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.“Iran is fortifying its defenses, rallying loyalists and threatening a wider, harsher response against the US and its Gulf allies as it prepares for potential American attacks after the midterms and seeks to deter them,” the article noted.This comes amid a flurry of other reports suggesting that the US or Israel could return to fighting Iran.Maariv said over the weekend that the United States had pressured Israel to carry out strikes against Iran. Both Israel and the US have upcoming elections. Any strikes could affect the elections.PBS reported on Sunday that “Iran has continued to reject a deal with the US. The head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council says Tehran finds the latest response from the United States 'insufficient' as efforts at negotiations to end the war and fully open the Strait of Hormuz limp along.”The picture being painted is of an Iran that continues attempting to rebuild its missile and drone program.Netanyahu said Iran can no longer produce ballistic missilesIn March, Israel's prime minister said that the Islamic Republic could no longer produce ballistic missiles due to its hammering by US and Israeli strikes. There was also an optimistic assessment about how many Iranian launchers had been destroyed and how many missiles were “corked” in their depots by collapsing routes to the missiles.In April, The New York Times reported that Iran was repairing its missile bunkers. The regime has shown it can rebuild capabilities.The WSJ report noted that “Iran has also reinforced protection around its nuclear sites and other security-related bunkers. Last month, it built passive defense measures such as makeshift dirt mounds around its Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz nuclear sites to impede any attempted raid by ground forces, according to Vantor satellite images analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington, DC, nonprofit.”The report quoted Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “In both word and deed, the Islamic Republic is actively preparing for the next war,” Ben Taleblu said.Iran is a huge country, around 75 times the size of Israel and 150 times the size of Lebanon. Israel has struggled to defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon and remove all its threats. This illustrates the challenge of locating all the Iranian threats. The new report at the WSJ is concerning in this respect.“Satellite images show Iran is strengthening sensitive locations, including nuclear sites and border areas, to make them more resilient to attacks. The government is also preparing Iranians for renewed war, sending paramilitary forces to read war stories to kindergartners, advertising training in firing shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missiles, and holding rallies,” the report added.It also said that Iran is prepared to defend against various types of airstrikes. It has likely learned some lessons from the 12 Day War in June 2025, as well as the round of strikes that began in February 2026 and lasted until May.Iran continues to threaten shipping via the Strait of Hormuz. The US has been working to make sure that ships can pass the Strait. It is trying to make sure that the crisis with Iran doesn't affect energy prices too much. However, all the levers the US has tried to pull still leave the conflict with Iran as an open-ended problem.The WSJ noted that “Iranian officials have hinted that their forces could conduct land incursions into neighboring countries, according to people familiar with the warnings.”With US forces having withdrawn from Iraq on September 30, this could give Iran some opportunities. It could try to infiltrate via Iraq or use Iranian-backed militias in Iraq to conduct more attacks. Those militias have already attacked a key pipeline in Saudi Arabia.While US Central Command (CENTCOM) and Saudi Arabia carried out retaliatory strikes in July, there is reticence in Riyadh to confront the militias in Iraq and the Houthis at the same time.Could renewed strikes produce different results?This is why the WSJ report is important. It notes that “Tehran has separately warned Arab officials that it could strike regional targets, including Saudi oil facilities, in the event of a renewed conflict, some of the people said.”Saudi Arabia is already weighing how to deal with the Houthi threat, which has targeted Saudi airports in recent days, killing and wounding people.The question now is whether a return to fighting by the US or Israel will lead to better results than in the past.Iran is seeking to rebuild; this means increasing its drone arsenal as well. The regime has had some success in attacking US bases in the region. It can read the same media reports as everyone else about how those attacks damaged facilities and airplanes and caused the US to reposition assets.