Could Germany handle a climate emergency?

Imagine a situation in which prolonged drought has devastated Germany and much of Europe, taking a toll on people's lives, the environment and economy, a heat wave with temperatures of up to 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) compounding the situation. Around 180 organizations across Germany, among them more than 60 ministries at the state level and nearly 20 federal authorities, are taking part in a major crisis exercise known as LÜKEX 26, which is built around this very scenario.

What is LÜKEX? It is Germany's cross-government crisis management exercise organized by the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK). And it’s been up and running for more than two decades. The first LÜKEX in 2004 dealt with the scenario of an extreme winter with a major power outage. Lessons from that exercise proved valuable in 2005 when the Münsterland region of North Rhine-Westphalia — Germany's most populous state — experienced the worst power outage in the country's post-war history.

When heavy snowfall caused power lines to collapse leaving 250,000 people without electricity for days, there was a better understanding of who to contact and where the bottlenecks were. Power lines collapsed during a snow storm in 2005 which caused a blackout in one region of Germany Image: Franz-Peter Tschauner/dpa/picture alliance Since it first started, LÜKEX has trained for scenarios involving terror attacks, an influenza pandemic, biological health threats, storm floods in Northern Germany and gas shortages in southern Germany.

The most recent exercise in 2023 simulated a cyberattack targeting government operations. How does this year's exercise it work? With the help of other ministries, the German Weather Service and the Federal Institute of Hydrology, the BBK developed a drought risk analysis to serve as the scenario. Participants, which include aid organizations Malteser and the German Red Cross, didn't know the specifics of the challenges they would be facing until the exercise kicked off on Wednesday.

At that point, they were told it was July 20, 2027. In that simulated future, they find themselves in a Germany that has been struggling with extreme heat for weeks; where water levels in rivers are falling, food supplies are becoming scarce and emergency services are under growing pressure. Patrick Pöhler, spokesperson for Malteser, who is taking part in the exercise says additional details include supermarkets having run out of water, collapsed supply chains and skyrocketing prices to enter a swimming pool.

Rhine River drops to record low levels, grounding ships To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video He says the scenario also goes into how the situation is impacting sections of society. "Emergency services and elderly care are areas that require particular attention," Pöhler said. "The increasingly extreme summers of recent years have shown how severely heat can affect staffing levels and operational capacity."

In its scenario, the northern port city of Hamburg, is tasked with managing the disruption of key transport routes that are impacting access to food and drinking water, as well as handling disinformation attacks that are fueling public fear. "We have not conducted an exercise of this magnitude since the end of the Cold War. Yet such preparations are essential to strengthen our resilience and crisis-response capabilities," said Hamburg's Interior Senator Andy Grote.

A glimpse into Hamburg's crisis management center where staff are responding to threats in real time Image: CNTV/ABBfoto/picture alliance Why does Germany need this kind of exercise? LÜKEX is designed to test and strengthen the country's ability to manage major crises at a strategic level. No matter the specific scenario, they all help test internal structures, workflows and decision-making processes. "The lessons learned are continuously incorporated into improving preparedness, planning and cooperation in civil protection," BBK spokesperson Katharina Böcker said.

This year's topic was decided a long time ago, well before recent summers in which Germany experienced extreme heat, she added. Thousands of people died from heat-related causes during the hot months of this year. A view of the port in Dusseldorf, North-Rhine Westphalia's capital, from early October Image: Malte Ossowski/SvenSimon/picture alliance "Crises such as extreme heatwaves and prolonged droughts can affect large parts of the population and challenge the operational capabilities of our critical structures over an extended period," said Christian Reuter, Secretary General of the German Red Cross, another organization taking part.

Observers take note of how organizations react in the crisis scenario to find out what went well and where things didn't run smoothly. "We are explicitly encouraged to make mistakes," said Malteser's Pöhler, because that is how weaknesses can be identified and addressed. A first internal debrief is scheduled for Friday, he added. A preliminary report with the main findings and respective recommendations is due to be published in the first quarter of 2027.

A full evaluation report will then be released later in the third quarter of 2027.