Warnings about weak deterrence, impending war were presented to ...
Warnings about weak deterrence, impending war were presented to PM before Oct. 7, says his former top military aide
Lazar Berman is The Times of Israel's diplomatic reporter
Avi Gil, the retired general who served as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military secretary before and after October 7, 2023, says there were repeated warnings from top security officials about an impending war in the weeks and months before the invasion and massacre, though none about the specific scenario that unfolded three years ago.
“For weeks, documents were submitted,” he tells Channel 12. “The security establishment described a reality in which our enemies identify the fissure [in society], identify weakening, and damage to our deterrence.”
The warnings took place over a bitter public fight around proposed reforms to Israel’s judicial system.
“Was there a specific, focused warning about a scenario like an attack like this from Gaza? The answer is unequivocally no,” he says.
“Did we start to recognize in the security establishment damage to our deterrence, our enemies looking differently at Israel? The answer is unequivocally yes,” says Gil. “And it was presented at all echelons.”
He says he personally delivered a warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about a possible impending war from Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar in July 2023, in which Bar formally stated that he was “conveying a warning of war,” as the coalition pushed through the first major piece of legislation in Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul package.
“I went to the prime minister in the hospital,” he says, referring to a weekend in July when the premier was hospitalized for dehydration, “in order to give him three things – the weekend’s intelligence report, a personal letter from the IDF chief of staff that he asked be delivered to him on the eve of the legislation, and a classified phone call with the Shin Bet director that I connected.”
He refuses to reveal the content of the letter or the call.
“The former Shin Bet director spoke accurately,” he says when asked if Bar’s subsequent account about warning Netanyahu that war was coming was correct.
He says Bar was expecting that Netanyahu would quickly summon him for further discussion, but this did not happen.
He notes that the IDF chief and defense minister sent two very senior officers to speak to legislators about the warning signs, and that they were not given a hearing. “At least listen to them,” he says. “You don’t have to accept their stances.”
It is put to him that the defense establishment was “in complete hysteria” that a war was imminent and Israel was not ready, and the government “was carrying on as though everything is fine.”
Gil says the heads of the defense establishment indeed felt that way, and notes that defense minister Gallant described the situation in that way.
How could it be that the defense establishment was not ready, he is asked, and replies that “there is no disputing the colossal failure of all hierarchies, and first and foremost, the defense authorities.”
Why, Gil is asked, didn’t he grab Netanyahu by the lapels and try to impress the dangers upon him? He replies that the prime minister heard the warnings about an impending war from all the key security chiefs. “There were many discussions. Many.”
“Everything that the security establishment knew was said [to Netanyahu],” Gil says.
He is reminded of a published document with his signature stating that Bar urged that Israel carry out assassinations of Hamas leaders in Gaza in this period, and that this did not happen. “That document is accurate,” Gil says.
It is also put to him that Netanyahu did not approve multiple requests for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to be targeted. “There were recommendations for targeted strikes in Gaza, and they were not approved,” Gil says.
The Times of Israel Community.