There are gas lines in Iran, but no sign yet that its leaders will bow to US sanctions

On The Ground newsletter: Get a weekly dispatch from our international correspondents Get a weekly dispatch from our international correspondents Get a weekly international news dispatch Email * SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our Privacy notice Lines have grown outside gas stations across Tehran in recent weeks as the United States has tightened its blockade and threatened more severe sanctions, with some people waiting for two hours or more to fill up. The uncertainty deepened on Tuesday, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed to fully sever the country from the global economy. In recent days, Iranian officials have spoken of a possible reduction in heavy gas subsidies as they seek to endure the tightening blockade. “Maybe we will face a shortage of fuel,” said Hashem Abadi, a 34-year-old barber. “I rush to the filling stations whenever my tank is down to half or so.” The latest U.S. measures are aimed at wringing concessions from the Islamic Republic nearly six months into the war launched by President Donald Trump and Israel. The war has already battered Iran's economy and inflicted mounting pain on ordinary people. But there's no sign yet that it has brought Iran's leaders to their knees, or that it will reignite the anti-government protests that convulsed the country in January. Shelves are full but pockets are empty The lines had been growing longer well before Bessent's announcement, amid shortages caused by the American blockade and existing sanctions. And with double-digit inflation and the rial currency at a record low, Iranians are struggling to afford more than just fuel. “I'm filling my car as much as possible since soon it will be sold at higher prices,” said 51-year-old taxi driver Mahmoud Chavoshi. “Everything I buy has grown more expensive over the last week, from milk to pasta.” There were no such lineups outside banks, and grocery stores and pharmacies are still well-stocked, but customers complained about being able to afford less. Inflation has soared during the war, and the currency hit a record low ahead of Bessent's announcement. “Some of our regular customers buy now and pay later, since their pockets are not as full as before,” said Morteza Daryani, who runs a grocery store in Tehran. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian accused the U.S. of resorting to economic pressure after failing to defeat Iran militarily. He said it was trying to create “social problems and economic dissatisfaction in order to throw Iran into chaos.” “Should we bow down to the problems and surrender? Absolutely not,” he was quoted as saying by the semiofficial Fars and Tasnim news agencies. No signs of unrest, but resilience has its limits There are no signs yet that the economic discontent has translated into protests in Iran, where authorities violently crushed demonstrations at the start of the year, killing thousands. Iran has been under heavy international sanctions for decades due to its nuclear program and support for armed groups. Oil sales to China have long provided a lifeline, and it's unclear if the U.S. can cut them off. Still, there are “always limits to resistance and resilience,” said Mohammad Farzanegan, a professor of Middle Eastern economics at the University of Marburg in Germany. “People are losing their purchasing power every day,” he said. “All of this, combined with worsening diplomatic prospects and the psychological burden of mounting pressures, could push frustration to a point where it can no longer be effectively managed by the state.” Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, who heads the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a think tank focused on Iran’s economy, said the sectors that Bessent threatened to target “are not lifelines for the Iranian state, they are lifelines for the Iranian people.” In an analysis posted on X, Batmanghelidj said digital assets and gold are how Iranians protect their savings, technology keeps them connected with the world, aviation allows them to travel, and shipping is how food and medicine reach Iran. UAE decision to cut trade ties could hit hard At the moment, the most effective economic pressure has come from the naval blockade. But last week's announcement from the United Arab Emirates that it was cutting off all trade and financial transactions with Iran could have longer-term effects if the country follows through, said Sascha Bruchmann, an analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies' Middle East office in Bahrain. Bessent, who on Monday threatened secondary American sanctions on countries doing business with Iran, suggested it was pressure from Washington that led the UAE to its decision. “Actions that they took last week were not coincident but likely causal, and I would expect that we would see a broad array of countries taking similar actions as we continue our engagement,” he said. Iran is exerting pressure of its own by largely closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that carried a fifth of the world's oil and gas before the war. It's betting that the impact on the global economy — and U.S. gas prices ahead of midterm elections — will force Trump to back down. “Trump is betting that their time runs out first due to the naval blockade,” Bruchmann said. “Both clocks are ticking, and no one knows which clock is right.”