Super El Niño's biggest victims: Ominous map reveals where deadly heat could kill the most people - as scientists warn 370,000 lives are at risk

An ominous map shows where Super El Niño's deadly heat could kill the most people, as the phenomenon continues to ramp up in the Pacific Ocean. The tool, called the El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker , reveals that an extra 370,000 lives could be at risk over the next six months. Nigeria , India and Brazil are forecast to bear the brunt of the crisis, accounting for more than a third of projected heat deaths by March. The UK is also affected, the map shows, with an estimated 820 deaths already attributable to El Niño's heat this summer.

Professor Michael Greenstone, from the University of Chicago , is co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab which developed the tool. 'Our research puts new forecasting capabilities to work to answer one of the most urgent questions we face: where is extreme heat likely to cost lives?' he said. 'Being able to anticipate the deadly effects of extreme heat is a major step forward. 'It means we can identify where people face the greatest risks and give decision-makers a chance to act before lives are lost.

The tracker provides this information for the Super El Niño we're living through today.' Nigeria, India and Brazil are forecast to bear the brunt of the crisis, accounting for more than a third of upcoming projected heat deaths by March The UK is also affected, the map shows, with an estimated 820 deaths already attributable to El Niño's heat this summer Last week, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned El Niño – which is characterised by unusually warm waters in the equatorial Pacific – is becoming 'unprecedented in strength'.

A very strong event disrupts normal temperature and rainfall patterns across many regions. It can bring severe drought to some areas, heavy rainfall and flooding to others, and increased heat across large parts of the world. The new tracker provides monthly data showing projected deaths up to six months away, along with the number of heat-related deaths since El Niño began in June. It estimates that as many as 484,500 deaths have already occurred as the result of the weather phenomenon, which is being supercharged by global warming.

The majority of these have occurred in India, where more than 100,000 people are thought to have been killed by extreme heat. The model also shows an extra 85,400 deaths have occurred in China since June, 38,500 in Sudan and more than 20,000 in Indonesia. Nigeria is forecasted to experience the highest toll from El Niño's heat, with about 56,000 deaths projected spread across the six-month forecast period The top 10 countries expected to be affected by heat deaths between October 2026 and March 2027 Closer to home, in Europe, the tool suggests there were an extra 7,200 heat-related deaths in Italy, 4,800 in France, 2,500 in Germany and 2,300 in Spain.

In the months to March, when El Niño is forecast to begin weakening, the greatest risks are expected to remain concentrated across Africa, India and parts of South America. While much of the US is projected to escape the worst impacts, California alone could see an additional 2,000 heat-related deaths. Several European cities, including Rome, Barcelona, Seville and Malaga, are also forecast to suffer further fatalities in the months ahead as temperatures remain elevated.

Scientists now estimate that El Niño will contribute to 857,400 additional heat-related deaths between June 2026 and March 2027. The grim toll is more than 350,000 higher than the researchers' initial estimate published only weeks ago . According to the team, the increase reflects the fact that August and September proved significantly hotter than forecast, leading to more heat-related deaths than initially anticipated. The latest outlook by the WMO warns that we are already witnessing extreme weather events amid this year's El Niño. Pictured surface air predictions for October–December 2026 The researchers said the tracker provides a detailed picture of where the threat is most severe, helping governments and aid agencies target resources and life-saving interventions where they are needed most. 'Those actions include those proven to be effective, such as early warning systems that inform expansion of healthcare access, and the provision of water and cooling centres,' they said.

Yesterday experts warned Britain could be in for a winter of chaos supercharged by El Niño. Scientists say that after a summer of relentless heat, the weather phenomenon now threatens to unleash fierce winds, torrential rain and even snow across the UK over the next few months. Recent stormy conditions are broadly consistent with what would be expected during a strong El Niño year, they explained. But with the climate event on track to be one of the most powerful recorded in living memory, it could wreak havoc on Britain's weather.

WHAT IS THE EL NINO PHENOMENON IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN? El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases (respectively) of a recurring climate phenomenon across the tropical Pacific - the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, winds and precipitation. These changes disrupt air movement and affect global climate.

ENSO has three phases: El Niño : A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rainfall becomes reduced, while rainfall increases over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the Equator, instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction from west to east. La Niña : A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average SST, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to increase, while rainfall decreases over the central tropical Pacific Ocean. The normal easterly winds along the Equator become even stronger. Neutral : Neither El Niño or La Niña. Often tropical Pacific SSTs are generally close to average. Source: Climate.gov