The end of the triple lock just got even more likely

Support for the state pension triple lock has fallen since Andy Burnham announced that he plans to scrap the mechanism, polling for The i Paper has found. The polling by BMG shows that the proportion of people supporting the lock has dropped below half, although four times as many still support it as oppose it. At Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool last month, the Prime Minister embarked on a political gamble by announcing plans to end the triple lock in its current form in April 2030 to help pay for free-at-the-point-of-use social care .

Under the current triple lock, the state pension rises each year in line with the highest of earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent. But the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has called the policy “unsustainable”, forecasting it will cost £15.5bn a year by 2030 – three times its original estimate. Burnham said that if Labour wins the next general election, a new “adjusted” lock will see the state pension rise each year by at least inflation or 2.5 per cent.

The state pension would also “hold its value relative to earnings over time”, meaning it would receive additional uplifts to ensure it does not fall below the proportion of average earnings it has reached by the time of the next election, which is expected to be more than 30 per cent. Support for triple lock slips For years, political parties have shied away from touching the lock over fears of being punished by the electorate . However, BMG’s latest polling for The i Paper shows no signs that Burnham is yet suffering a backlash over his decision to call time on the lock.

Labour has increased its lead in the polls compared to last month , moving to 31 per cent of the vote, while the polling also shows a drop in support for the triple lock. The share who support the triple lock fell five points compared to last month to 48 per cent, with 26 per cent saying they “strongly support” it and a further 22 saying they “somewhat support it”. Twelve per cent said they opposed the lock – one point down on last month – with 8 per cent saying they “somewhat oppose” it and 4 per cent saying they “strongly oppose” it.

The polling change has been driven by people saying they are now unsure about the policy, with 27 per cent saying “neither support nor oppose” it – up eight points on September. Thirteen per cent said they “don’t know” when asked about the lock, down three points on last month. Robert Struthers, head of public perceptions at BMG, said the findings suggested Burnham is making progress in winning people round to his thinking on the lock.

He said: “You might be tempted to argue that Burnham remains on the wrong side of public opinion on the issue. Far more continue to support it after all. “But I don’t think that’s the right reading. A drop of this size so soon after a major intervention suggests Burnham has perhaps started to win the argument.” Struthers went on: “Polling on the triple lock is also tricky as results can vary widely depending on how the question is asked.

Yes, many people back the triple lock in principle – but there is a paradox: framed differently, many also back replacing it. Other polling has shown that when Burnham’s plan is presented as replacing the triple lock and putting the savings into social care, people support that too. “So, I think the fall in support for the triple lock in principle here is what’s telling. Much of the detail – and all of the implementation – is still to come, but the public have responded well at least initially.

He has taken on a tricky argument and, so far, there are signs he is winning it.” He added: “There’s no sign yet of a wider political cost for Burnham either. Since he announced his proposed changes to the triple lock at conference, Labour has gained ground in our polling.” If support for the lock continues to slide, it could cause opposition parties to change their positions on the issue. At the moment, the Conservatives, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats are all committed to continuing the lock.

However, there are splits in each of the parties on the issue. Senior Tories such as Sir Jeremy Hunt, an ex-chancellor, and Sir Andrew Mitchell , a former cabinet minister, have called for the lock to be reformed. The i Paper also reported last month how some senior Conservative MPs believe Kemi Badenoch has been too quick to recommit to the policy. One shadow cabinet minister said: “It’s unaffordable in the long term, of course we should keep our options open.

I see why Kemi’s doing it, but I don’t think we should commit to it so far away from an election.” Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey – whose leadership has become more vulnerable in recent months – has also faced internal criticism from his MPs over his decision to stand by the lock, claiming it would help millennials when they retire. One Lib Dem MP told The i Paper that more than half of the party’s MPs privately wanted to get rid of the lock.

Another, Harrogate and Knaresborough MP Tom Gordon, wrote on X last month: “Telling millennials we’re keeping the triple lock to help us in 30 years’ time is nonsense.” He added: “I joined this party because I care about fairness and tackling inequality, and that has to include inequality between generations.” There are also differences of opinion in Reform on the triple lock. Party leader Nigel Farage toyed for many months with the idea of coming out against it, but was eventually persuaded by his Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick to commit to keeping it.