Labour Storm Ahead In New Poll As Reform's Decline Worsens In Third Place
Labour has taken an eight-point lead in a new poll while Reform UK’s decline continues. Andy Burnham’s party has crept up to 32%, an increase of five percentage points on last month, according to data from Ipsos in the UK. This is the largest Labour lead these pollsters have recorded in this parliament. Ipsos also put the Conservative in second place for the first time since June 2025, as Kemi Badenoch’s party rests at 24%, after a modest increase of three percentage points.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform is now down three points on 20%, as the distance between the two main right-wing parties grow. The Liberal Democrat Party is in fourth place on 9%, having gained one point, and the Green Party trails behind on 8%, after dropping five points. Labour and the Tories are creeping ahead as support for Reform and the Greens ebbs away, according to the pollsters. Another survey looking at the public’s satisfaction with the government shows a net score of -43, the highest recorded since Boris Johnson was prime minister in 2022.
Left out here: Leaves out what changes the picture
The article does not mention that a second poll published the same weekend, Opinium's, gave Labour an eight-point lead on 30% but put Reform second on 22% and the Tories third on 20%. Without it, a reader of a headline about Reform's decline 'in third place' may take Reform's third place as the settled picture across polls, when it rests on Ipsos alone.
How we know
- Daily Mirror reported“Opinium also found Labour had an eight point lead on 30% with Nigel Farage's embattled Reform trailing in second place on 22% and the Tories on 20%”Andy Burnham's 'resurgent' Labour secures poll boost over Reform and Tories ahead of crunch week (opens in a new tab)
Almost a third (30%) think the government deserves to be re-elected, up two points from September, and 35% are satisfied with the job Burnham is doing as prime minister. Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics at Ipsos in the UK said: “Whilst the headline figures do show a striking change, they confirm a pattern we have been seeing in the underlying data for some time. “The Labour Party under Andy Burnham is resurgent, consolidating voters on the left behind them.
“On the right, the tectonic plates have been shifting recently and now this is reflected in the Conservatives – not Reform UK – being in a clear second place. “However, we should be mindful against overreacting to one poll. “The government faces a challenging budget this coming week and the lesson of the last year is the British politics is volatile. The picture today is very different to six months ago and it could be different again in six months time too.”
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