A New Level of Threat and Fear Risks Pushing the U.S. and Iran Back to Full War
Inside the Trump administration, officials are expressing fears that Iran is in the “advanced stages” of planning attacks against U.S. officials. More than 6,000 miles away, the Iranians appear convinced that Israel and the United States are preparing to unleash their third major attack in 16 months, a final push to force Iran to surrender to U.S. demands. The conflict in the Middle East has entered a new phase in which a maelstrom of factors, from the political calendars in the United States and Israel to the potential for all sides to be seeking pretexts for action, are creating heightened levels of tension and risk.
This is how countries can escalate into full-scale war, several diplomats and outside experts noted. If the U.S. intelligence disclosed this week is right that Iran has credible plans to attack Americans at home and abroad, one senior European official said — “and it probably is,” the official added — one gunshot that appears aimed at a U.S. official could touch off a conflagration. So could a stray explosion near a bunker sheltering Iranian leaders , who already survived their predecessors’ deaths in a decapitation strike in the opening hours of the war on Feb. 28.
The fact that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and President Trump are facing critical elections that could dramatically affect the balance of power in their countries feeds into the complex set of calculations that all sides are making. Even if he is defeated on Tuesday, Mr. Netanyahu could decide to launch one last strike that he may believe his successor would hesitate to execute. Similarly, Mr. Trump, who knows how unpopular the war is even among his strongest supporters, may want to show that at least when it comes to his powers as commander in chief, his authority is undiminished.
And, as in other moments of global peril — the Cuban Missile Crisis and the decision to invade in Iraq, as examples — partial or faulty intelligence, or just a failure to understand the adversary’s true motives, can carry deadly consequences. Iraq poses another cautionary tale, when selective intelligence can be used as an actual pretext for military action. U.S. officials say they are focused on elements of the most recent intelligence suggesting that the Iranians may seek to kill U.S. ambassadors in the Middle East and American officials on U.S. soil — a longtime ambition of Iran’s elite Unit 840 , which has carried out kidnappings and assassinations around the globe.
But history suggests Iran’s desires often outstrip its capabilities. It has at times hired hapless hit men who have been arrested before they could do harm. We are having trouble retrieving the article content. Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access.
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