A.I. Hurricane Models Were Front and Center as Isaias Headed Toward Land

As Hurricane Isaias approached the Gulf Coast this week, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were confronted with a striking split in their data. The traditional models, the ones that for decades have used physics to help experienced meteorologists understand where a hurricane is most likely to go, had been projecting a western path toward Alabama and Mississippi. But a suite of new experimental models that used artificial intelligence were pushing the forecast path farther east, toward Pensacola, Fla. The two approaches pitted meteorology’s most seasoned experts against the industry’s buzziest new technology. These diverging paths were in constant tension this week. Forecasters at the Hurricane Center writing their official forecast updates, which are meant to serve as the synthesis of the competing models’ guidance, noted their differences openly and discussed which they were most aligned with on each pass. As landfall drew nearer, the traditional models crept closer and closer to the new ones, and by Friday, they were generally in agreement that landfall would most likely happen between Mobile, Ala., and just east of Pensacola, Fla. On Friday night, the storm made landfall just over 40 miles east of Pensacola, near Destin, Fla. Jamie Rhome, the deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, said that people may assume that the experts at the Hurricane Center just look at models and pick a “winning horse” to base their forecasts on. We are having trouble retrieving the article content. Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? Log in . Want all of The Times? Subscribe .