After 100 days, the Burnham bounce may have peaked

It is fitting that Andy Burnham will end his 100th day in office on Tuesday by hosting No 10’s annual Diwali celebration. The Hindu festival symbolises the triumph of light over darkness and is traditionally accompanied by extravagant firework displays. Labour MPs will doubtless enjoy the parallels. Having ejected Sir Keir Starmer following a gloomy two years in which the party’s poll rating plunged, they are basking in the glow of the “Burnham bounce”.

The latest surveys show the Prime Minister is Britain’s most popular party leader, while Labour’s rapid reincarnation on his watch has seen it overtake Reform , prompting speculation about an early election. Mr Burnham is no stranger to setting off a political firework of his own, from pleading in his conference speech to scrap the triple lock to opening the door this week to Britain reinstating free movement with the EU. But questions are arising over whether, beyond the woolly long-term ambitions and sparkly “everyday fixes” on energy bills and parking charges, he represents a true break with Sir Keir’s legacy.

As the light fades on the Prime Minister’s honeymoon period, The Telegraph puts his record in office to the test. The economy The big test of Mr Burnham’s economic credentials will come the day after his 100-day anniversary, when John Healey delivers his first Budget on Wednesday. Treasury insiders have already rolled the pitch for a “steady as she goes” statement, which will steer clear of the large tax rises and substantial spending commitments that were a feature of life under Rachel Reeves, the former chancellor.

There are expected to be some measures to tackle the cost of living, including energy-bill support for the poorest households, while banks are braced for a raid on their profits. Mr Burnham inherited a dire economic picture, with inflation surging to 3.5 per cent in September, its highest in a year, as the effects of Donald Trump’s war on Iran reached voters in the form of higher prices. His previous comments on not being in hock to bond markets, plus his big-spending visions on social care and nationalisation of utilities, have done little to reassure international investors who are nervous about runaway public spending.

But it is the Prime Minister’s failure to grasp the nettle on welfare reform that is chiefly responsible for the premium the UK is paying to service its national debt. So far his economic interventions have been relatively small: temporarily taking VAT off energy bills and capping bus fares at £2. Which means that after three months in office, the jury is still out. Immigration In contrast to the worsening economy, immigration is one of the few areas where Mr Burnham inherited an improving picture from Sir Keir.

Legal migration tumbled to 171,000 in the year to June, just before Mr Burnham became Prime Minister, thanks to a significant toughening of visa rules. It means that next year he may well become the first occupant of No 10 since Sir John Major to deliver net migration in the tens of thousands. But Mr Burnham has signalled a change in stance, preparing to water down reforms to indefinite leave to remain proposed by Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary.

Mr Burnham is preparing to give in to Labour MPs who want Ms Mahmood’s changes to be significantly weakened, at the risk of angering many Red Wall voters. The Prime Minister also inherited an improving picture on small-boat crossings , which are significantly down from their high of 46,000 back in 2022. By the time Sir Keir ended his first 100 days, some 13,651 migrants had been intercepted in the Channel. Mr Burnham, by contrast, will have only seen around 8,500 asylum seekers arrive by boat during his first three months on the job.

Despite the falling numbers, his premiership has seen large protests break out against the arrival of “mega-dinghies” on the UK’s shores. Crime and justice Sir Keir handed his predecessor in No 10 an almighty hospital pass in the form of his controversial early release scheme. Within days of Mr Burnham entering office, The Telegraph revealed that the killers of Pc Andrew Harper were among those set to be released from jail. One of the Prime Minister’s first acts was to order a review of the policy to keep more inmates behind bars.

He announced that anyone guilty of manslaughter would be excluded from the scheme, as would those in jail for death by dangerous driving and child sex offences. Mr Burnham said that extra prison space would be found by deporting foreign prisoners and freeing some inmates serving indeterminate sentences. But many criminals are still being released early in waves, creating a recurring set of embarrassing scenes for the Prime Minister. And the prison estate is now creaking under the pressure.

The number of free cell spaces fell from 2,938 on his first day in office to 1,556 as of the end of last month. Foreign affairs Mr Burnham has unashamedly pledged to pursue a domestic focus in his premiership to set himself apart from his jet-setting predecessor. No sooner was he elected than Sir Keir hopped on the government plane, flying to a Nato summit in Washington just four days after his landslide victory. During his first 100 days, the former prime minister also visited Paris, Berlin, Dublin, Rome, Brussels, and the US on two further occasions.

In contrast Mr Burnham did not head abroad at all until Aug 24, more than a month after he entered No 10, making a visit to Kyiv his first trip . Despite his efforts to focus on domestic issues, there has been one foreign quandary that Labour MPs have not let their leader dodge: Gaza. The Prime Minister announced a significantly tougher stance towards Israel to placate Left-wing backbenchers. Sanctions on Israeli settlements drew plaudits from his MPs, but significantly damaged relations with Israel.

Defence This is another area where Mr Burnham will feel he is facing a difficult task to clear up a mess left to him by Sir Keir. The Prime Minister’s most immediate headache is finding £4.7bn for a defence investment plan that was left partly unfunded by Ms Reeves. But beyond that, both he and Mr Healey, the former defence secretary, face a series of increasingly urgent questions over when and how they plan to increase the Armed Forces budget to 3 per cent of GDP.

They chose to delay difficult decisions on defence spending until after Wednesday’s Budget, given that finding the money would require either making cuts to other departments or announcing yet more economically damaging tax rises. Instead they have been hit with negative headlines and criticism over cuts to Britain’s already underpowered military. Mr Burnham oversaw the withdrawal of £2bn earmarked to develop three new battlefield vehicles and a further £1bn that was meant to be used to improve barracks plagued by leaks and mould.

The Prime Minister has insisted that defence and national security are his “first priority”. But there are few signs of what that means. Welfare The main reason Mr Burnham cannot fund a defence uplift is the rising sums required to sustain Britain’s welfare state. Spending on benefits is now on course to top £165bn next year which is more than the budgets for defence, schools and policing combined. The Prime Minister has faced repeated calls from opponents to cut payments and funnel the cash towards the military.

But instead he caused a storm when he told the Commons last month that national security “can’t come at the expense of social security”. Next month, he will be handed a report by Alan Milburn, a former Labour health secretary, into youth joblessness that was commissioned by Sir Keir. As The Telegraph has revealed, it is going to recommend a long-term “invest to save” strategy of pouring more money into employment support, meaning the welfare bill is set to carry on going up until the next election.