Gaza sinks into winter misery as Hamas regains strength

More than a year has passed since the ceasefire in Gaza took effect, and little has fundamentally changed. On the surface, a series of developments appeared to signal the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump's vision for the territory. They included the establishment of a Board of Peace intended to assume responsibility for Gaza's administration, the formation of a Palestinian technocratic government, the opening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, the inauguration of the international Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC) in the southern city of Kiryat Gat, and the continued arrival of foreign troops, primarily from Morocco and Uganda, who were supposed to deploy in Gaza.

In practice, none of those promises has materialized as envisioned. They have remained a series of declarations, documents and ceremonies. Israel has enjoyed a year of relatively limited external pressure, particularly from the Trump administration. The IDF, which controls more than 60% of the Gaza Strip, has entrenched itself along the so-called Yellow Line, the boundary separating Israeli-controlled areas from the rest of the territory, while steadily encroaching on additional Palestinian territory, a development presented in Israel as a "dramatic achievement."

Israel has also retained broad operational freedom, carrying out daily strikes against Hamas targets, including the killing of senior commanders of the group's military wing, most notably Izz al-Din al-Haddad and his successor, Mohammed Odeh. Meanwhile, Israel has faced a clear red line against resuming a full-scale war, let alone occupying the entire Gaza Strip. On the other side of the Yellow Line, little has changed either, contrary to Israeli expectations.

Despite the devastating blows Hamas has suffered and the unprecedented destruction it has brought upon Gaza, the group remains the dominant force in the Palestinian-controlled part of the territory. No meaningful alternative or challenger has emerged. That includes the militias established with Israeli encouragement and operating under IDF protection, which most Palestinians view as collections of collaborators. Hamas is far weaker than it was three years ago, but it is undergoing a continuous rebuilding process.

That effort includes recruiting operatives, whose numbers are estimated at about 30,000, not far below the organization's strength on Oct. 7, 2023, appointing replacements for commanders killed in the war, accumulating weapons and reorganizing military units. The group also maintains control over public life through police officers who wear civilian-style vests rather than uniforms, apparently recognizing that uniforms would make them certain targets for Israeli strikes.

Those officers monitor market prices, apprehend thieves and, last week, even organized a mass wedding ceremony for couples in Gaza. The event illustrated how Hamas has managed to preserve close ties with the population despite the devastating war. The yearlong stalemate stems from a combination of Trump's limited interest in Gaza, partly because of his focus on other crises, particularly Iran and Ukraine, and the impasse over demands that Hamas disarm.

Israel has insisted on complete and immediate disarmament. Hamas, meanwhile, has ostensibly expressed a "positive approach" while offering what it describes as compromises, including a willingness to surrender heavy weapons but not small arms, or to temporarily place its weapons in storage facilities. In practical terms, those proposals indicate that Hamas has no intention of relinquishing its military capabilities. The organization is effectively seeking to become a kind of "Gazan Hezbollah," allowing a nominal government to take office while preserving its dominance behind the scenes, particularly in military affairs.

International patience begins to run out The past week has brought mounting signs that Israel's relatively comfortable year may be coming to an end. Trump spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about a week ago and demanded progress toward implementing the Gaza arrangements. Tony Blair, the former British prime minister and a senior member of the Board of Peace, also visited Israel and met with Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, the former IDF chief who leads the parliamentary bloc seeking to replace Netanyahu.

Media reports suggested that Blair expressed frustration with Israel's conduct during those meetings. The conclusion of Israel's elections appears to be connected to the international community's diminishing tolerance for the situation in Gaza. For an extended period, particularly during the politically sensitive period preceding the elections, Trump avoided pressuring Netanyahu over Gaza. He accepted the prime minister's position that any progress in the territory must be conditional on Hamas first surrendering its weapons.

But the international community appears increasingly influenced by images of daily strikes in Gaza, scenes that are less familiar to the Israeli public. There is also growing unwillingness to accept the argument that the Oct. 7 massacre provides Israel with continuing justification for the use of military force. International audiences are expressing revulsion and suspicion toward ideas that have become normalized in parts of Israeli political discourse, foremost among them proposals for the "voluntary" transfer of Palestinians out of Gaza.

As a result, there appears to be a growing determination to make progress on Gaza, even while Israel remains entangled in a political deadlock. Winter floods deepen Gaza's humanitarian catastrophe The emerging pressure has accelerated over the past two weeks as severe winter weather has compounded Gaza's humanitarian crisis. In a territory where poverty and unemployment are nearly universal, approximately 70% of residents have been displaced and infrastructure has been devastated, with no significant reconstruction undertaken over the past year, winter conditions are proving particularly destructive.

Winter storms have long caused severe hardship in Gaza, but this season has been especially punishing. Some sprawling tent encampments housing displaced Palestinians have turned into lakes. Mudslides have killed five civilians, while illness and cold-related injuries are increasing. "Alongside the flooding, there is a severe sewage problem, with sewage surrounding people on all sides," Raed, a manager at a humanitarian aid organization operating in Gaza, said in an interview this week.

"About 70,000 tents were damaged over the past weekend by the rainstorm and strong winds. Gaza currently needs 120,000 tents, more than half a million tarpaulins and 1.7 million mattresses. "All this is happening while aid warehouses in Gaza are almost empty, and 117,000 tents are stuck on the Egyptian side because of coordination problems. "Under the current circumstances, people have neither the strength nor the time to discuss who is responsible for what happened to Gaza or to plan for the future.

Everyone is preoccupied with survival." Imad al-Afranji, a Gaza-based researcher, described the prevailing sentiment in the territory. "Gaza is being held hostage by Israel's delaying tactics and is wasting away in the face of the Board of Peace's helplessness," he said. "Gazans have suffered repeated disappointments at the hands of the international community, but they hope that perhaps this time, when the suffering is reaching unprecedented levels, outside assistance will finally arrive."

Images of Gaza's worsening winter conditions have fueled growing international criticism of Israel, including allegations that it is preventing humanitarian assistance that could alleviate the crisis from reaching the territory. The Board of Peace issued a statement reflecting those concerns. There have also been reports that Britain is preparing a declaration backed by 50 countries demanding that Israel significantly ease restrictions on humanitarian aid deliveries and the activities of international organizations in Gaza.

Amid the mounting pressure, Israel announced that it was prepared to allow dual-use equipment into Gaza to help restore sanitation infrastructure, particularly wastewater treatment facilities. Such equipment can have both civilian and military applications and is therefore subject to Israeli security restrictions. Separately, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Dubai's ruler and the United Arab Emirates' vice president, announced this week that he was prepared to provide tents for 50,000 people in Gaza.

Gaza protests spread as Hamas intensifies its messaging The humanitarian crisis is unfolding against a backdrop of expanding international protests against Israel over Gaza. At a rally in Amsterdam on Sunday attended by approximately 250,000 people, demonstrators called for tougher sanctions against Israel. Some also voiced support for Hamas, describing it as a "resistance organization." "A ruined, besieged and war-ravaged city has managed to establish itself deep in the hearts of masses of people around the world," said Gaza journalist Rasha Farhat.

"At the beginning of the week, huge crowds took to the streets in the Netherlands in solidarity with Gaza. Most had never heard of Gaza before the war or know very little about it, but the images coming out of the territory are prompting people to act." A pro-Gaza demonstration was also held Tuesday in New York. In Berlin, a Palestinian flag was raised on a flagpole near the German parliament building, replacing the German flag in protest over conditions in Gaza.

Hamas has recognized the propaganda opportunity presented by the winter crisis and is moving quickly to exploit it, according to Dr. Dina Lisnyansky of Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. "Hamas clearly recognizes the propaganda opportunity presented by the winter crisis and is acting quickly and energetically," Lisnyansky said. "The organization is promoting a coordinated campaign, working closely with and mutually reinforcing sympathetic media outlets in the Arab world, particularly Al Jazeera.

A similar pattern emerged during the campaign that purported to show the 'starvation of Gaza.' "Across Hamas websites and dozens of Telegram accounts operated on the organization's behalf, the same messages appear in multiple languages, accompanied by identical illustrations of refugee tents submerged in water." Earlier this week, Hamas called for worldwide "days of rage" to be held on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The organization urged political groups, labor unions and nongovernmental organizations to organize demonstrations demanding an end to Israeli military operations in Gaza, an expansion of the economic boycott against Israel and increased humanitarian assistance to the territory.

The suffering caused by Gaza's winter conditions cannot be denied. Yet Hamas appears, as it has in the past, to be using manipulative and exaggerated portrayals of the situation and Israeli policy to advance its objectives. Gaza's technocratic government shows signs of life Meanwhile, the Palestinian technocratic administration established last January, formally known as the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, is showing signs of renewed activity as diplomatic efforts appear to gain momentum.

The committee was established as part of the proposed postwar governance framework but has remained largely sidelined. Its members are now receiving messages from local figures in Gaza, particularly clan and tribal committees, saying the time has come for the administration to leave Cairo, where it currently operates, and enter the territory to address the population's severe hardships. Committee members have begun contacting Nikolay Mladenov, the former United Nations envoy responsible for Gaza on behalf of the Board of Peace, as well as American and European officials.

So far, however, there is no concrete plan or timetable for the committee to begin operating inside Gaza. Hamas, for its part, has launched a cynical campaign asking, "Where is the committee?" The campaign questions what the body has actually accomplished and where the 50 officials reportedly appointed to work on its behalf inside Gaza are. Meanwhile, Hamas continues to insist that it is ostensibly prepared to transfer governing authority in the territory immediately.

The contrast is striking: Hamas presents itself as ready to relinquish civilian responsibilities while continuing to maintain the military power that would allow it to dominate any successor administration. Pressure on Gaza could extend to Syria, Lebanon and the West Bank The growing pressure on Israel over Gaza could foreshadow a broader diplomatic challenge extending well beyond the territory. Similar international demands may soon emerge regarding Syria and Lebanon, where Israel continues to hold territory without presenting clear road maps or coherent long-term strategies.

Pressure could also intensify over the West Bank, where escalating disorder and serious violence by Israeli settlers, alongside statements by senior government officials advocating confrontation with the Palestinian Authority or even its dismantlement, are generating harsh criticism. Some of those statements have invoked what Israeli officials describe as a warning of a potential "turning of the guns," referring to fears that Palestinian security forces could turn their weapons against Israel.

These developments are accelerating Israel's international isolation. In Israel, however, officials and commentators often prefer