US military movements don't signal decision to strike: Israel prepares, waits on Trump again

Is the United States preparing to resume its war against Iran? When could another attack take place, and what would its objectives be? A series of military movements observed in recent weeks has raised these questions, but there is still no clear indication that President Donald Trump has decided to order renewed strikes. Israel's defense establishment is preparing for the possibility of another conflict, both offensively and defensively, while security officials stress that the developments remain preliminary and are intended, at least in part, to give the president military options should he decide to act.

One of the most significant developments involves the deployment of U.S. forces in the Arabian Sea, near Iran's coast. Twelve American destroyers have been operating in the area in recent weeks, up from approximately eight to 10 previously. Some may be involved in the naval blockade, but the increased presence is also being examined in the context of preparations for a possible military campaign. Two U.S. aircraft carriers are also stationed in the region, while a third is expected to complete its deployment near Japan.

Washington will then have to decide whether to send it to the Arabian Sea as reinforcements or use it to replace one of the carriers already there. Is overthrowing Iran's regime back on the table? Alongside the naval buildup, preliminary indications of increased American air activity have also emerged. According to an analysis by Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), aircraft tracking data cautiously suggests that the United States is rebuilding its aerial refueling network in Europe, potentially providing a staging point for moving additional forces into the area covered by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).

Between Wednesday and Thursday, an American RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft flew from the United States to Britain, while eight C-17 military transport aircraft landed in southern Israel. The assessment is that the aircraft were carrying air defense equipment and logistical supplies, potentially indicating preparations to reinforce defensive systems and offensive capabilities. The IDF has not commented on reports of the landings. Security officials emphasize that the movements do not necessarily indicate a decision to attack.

Trump could still pursue a diplomatic solution, and the scale of the preparations primarily reflects Washington's desire to keep the military option available. "The Americans are preparing options for the president, if and when he decides to launch an attack," a security official said. The central question is what the objectives of another military campaign would be if one were launched. During Operation Rising Lion, Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities, with the United States joining the campaign toward its conclusion by attacking the Fordow nuclear facility.

During Operation Roaring Lion, which lasted 42 days, nuclear targets were largely avoided. Instead, the campaign focused on weapons manufacturing facilities, military and national infrastructure, Iran's navy and missile systems, alongside more limited strikes against symbols of the regime and the Basij paramilitary forces affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Another factor is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's declaration ahead of Israel's elections that he had instructed the country's security agencies to advance a plan to overthrow the Iranian regime in cooperation with Trump.

Netanyahu intensified his rhetoric on the issue in the days leading up to the vote and on Election Day itself. The IDF's Military Intelligence Directorate and Israeli Air Force are continuing to update their target lists, divided into categories including infrastructure, nuclear facilities, military buildup and missile capabilities. Any effort to overthrow the Iranian regime would also require a comprehensive operational plan developed by the Mossad intelligence agency in coordination with other Israeli security bodies.

Israeli defense officials are also considering the possibility that Iran could launch an attack of its own, driven by mounting economic distress and fears of another American-Israeli operation after having been caught off guard by major opening strikes on two previous occasions. "In systems like the American military, preparing the available options takes time," a senior security official explained. "We are talking about weeks, certainly when it comes to a broad military campaign rather than a limited operation, even if it is a short one, as foreign media reports have suggested."

The official said it remains difficult to predict Trump's decision. Even if the president authorizes renewed fighting, an attack would not necessarily follow immediately. Israel would prefer a short, intensive campaign, particularly after Operation Roaring Lion stretched to 42 days, considerably longer than initially planned. Hezbollah prepares for possible confrontation Military preparations are unfolding alongside diplomatic efforts.

According to reports in recent days, U.S. Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a figure considered close to Mojtaba Khamenei, to explore the possibility of renewing negotiations between Washington and Tehran. American officials said the initiative was undertaken with Trump's knowledge and at his direction. At the same time, the president continues to threaten a return to military action, potentially after the U.S. midterm elections.

The simultaneous diplomatic contacts and military movements leave open the possibility that Washington is seeking to increase pressure on Tehran while preparing for potential military action. Another concern is Israel's northern front. Israeli defense officials are preparing for the possibility that renewed fighting against Iran could expand into a confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon. During the past month, Israeli interceptor missiles have been launched near the Lebanese border.

The IDF has not disclosed the targets of those interceptions, but Israeli assessments suggest that at least some may have involved Hezbollah reconnaissance drones attempting to gather intelligence on Israeli troop deployments. Hezbollah has also been moving weapons and preparing for the possibility of renewed fighting with the IDF. Israel's Northern Command is working to reinforce defensive lines held by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, establish positions offering greater control through observation and firepower, and prepare plans for capturing additional Hezbollah strongholds.

A renewed conflict could also affect Israel's political situation, with uncertainty continuing over the formation of a governing coalition following the elections. Another war against Iran could reshape the public agenda, alter the balance of power among political parties and place national security and relations with Washington back at the center of political debate. For now, Israel continues updating its military plans while Washington maintains both diplomatic contacts and threats of renewed action.

Whether the preparations will lead to another military campaign, and what its objectives might be, remains uncertain.