Frustrated Trump is looking for a target – and Iran tops the list (again)

Donald Trump should take heed of the Republican Party’s crushing defeat in the midterms, according to Iran’s chief negotiator, or the US government will face dire consequences. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament , wrote on X that whether out of “conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message”. He warned that if the US government did not listen, “it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare”.

The cost of Trump’s war against Iran has become increasingly clear to Americans in recent months. The US President told Fox News on Tuesday that the war was a factor in the defeat of his party in the midterms. “It was a factor,” he said, “but the war in Iran is more important than what happened this evening.” Many see the election results as a plea for an end to the war, largely because the alternative is likely to mean the conflict drags on, increasing the cost of living for Americans and others around the globe.

Trump and Pete Hegseth , his self-styled Secretary of War, have used up a great deal of missiles and other weaponry over the last eight months, leaving parts of the US arsenals worryingly bare . They’ve also used up a great deal of US military credibility, which will take years to rebuild. Whether Trump decides to escalate will affect America’s status and capabilities in matters of war and peace across the world. It will affect what progress, if any, can be made in peace talks in Ukraine, as well as future standoffs in the East and South China Seas with China over Taiwan.

The US President has talked up and then down renewed attacks on Iran in recent days but may now be looking for someone to take his anger and frustrations out on. If Trump does use increased force against Iran – which it looks like his commander in the region, Admiral Brad Cooper, has advised against – he will have to act quickly. He probably has only a few days to decide whether to escalate or negotiate, and few in the US are advising him to do the former.

The limitations of US forces – particularly warships in the region – as well as the growing scrutiny by US media, new legislators and his own Vice President will make escalation increasingly difficult in coming weeks. JD Vance came out today to blame the war for the Republicans’ historic defeat. “The reason we lost is the war. The President himself said so last night,” he said. Asked about Vance’s claim, Trump said it was “largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term”, but added that it was “worth it”.

Speaking during his first public speech since the defeat, standing at the site of his planned White House ballroom, the President spoke mainly about the ballroom. However, when asked about the war, he added: “If I had it to do again, I’d have to do it again, because long term, it’s the only answer. You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.” Demonstrators burn a US flag during the annual rally commemorating the 1979 US embassy takeover, outside the former embassy in Tehran, Iran (Photo: Vahid Salemi/AP) On Wednesday, three ships were reported to have been hit in the Strait of Hormuz .

This followed the US bombing of Qeshm Island earlier this week, in retaliation for a missile launch against a US aircraft. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, a prominent Iran hawk, told The Wall Street Journal on Monday that “there are still substantive differences between both sides, so an escalation seems inevitable. Things will get nasty very quickly”. Only Trump can truly know what he will do next, and even he might not know.

Over the weekend, he hinted at another military strike on Iran, saying the US was “going to have to give them the hammer”, before telling the Financial Times days later that he had no immediate plan to strike Iran. The focus may now shift to Hegseth, who will come under intense congressional scrutiny when the new Democrat majorities are sworn into office in January. Hegseth is likely to be questioned over ordering US forces to target civilian boats in the Caribbean.

At the time, he suggested that they were drug smugglers but provided little evidence to back up his claim. He is also likely to be hauled before committees to answer questions over how the war on Iran has been conducted. The audit will read like a list of failures; the US and Israel have not achieved any of the aims set out by Trump: regime change, popular uprising or removal of nuclear materials and ambitions. Instead, Iran has exerted control over the destiny of two great maritime choke points – Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, via the Houthis .

Any peace agreement is likely to give Tehran an enhanced grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The new Democrat-controlled Congress is also likely to question projects like Hegseth’s plan for a $1.5 trillion defence budget. Trump stalwarts told the BBC that the midterm results would make Trump less inhibited in his final two years in office, and that he could pretty much do what he wants in terms of foreign and military affairs. This is highly questionable – since Congress is supposed to hold the real powers on going to war – but points to a worrying new reality of a President with little left to lose, and his legacy at the forefront of his mind.

The biggest argument against any renewed attacks is the failure of the conflict so far and the sheer amount of damage being wrought daily. Since March, some 125 merchant ships have been hit in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with 34 attacked in October alone. The waterway is still threatened with complete periodic closures. What comes next in Iran is no longer about the midterms, but about Trump’s goals before he leaves office. For now, Trump’s great peacemaker posture seems to be facing the big short, and time may finally be up for the brand of developer-diplomacy led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner .

Trump won’t want to be shown up again. The midterm failings may humble him or make him lash out – and Iran could be the testing ground for his most ambitious aims.