Unionism splinters again as departure of DUP’s Carla Lockhart from party deals a blow

Carla Lockhart had nowhere to go, and so she went. Until Monday evening the Democratic Unionist Party MP for Upper Bann, Lockhart will now represent the constituency as an independent unionist. She quit over – as she saw it – her former party’s failure to hold First Minister Michelle O’Neill properly to account for her “lawbreaking” – Lockhart’s language – by taking part in unnotified protests against the now-banned Orange Order march at Drumcree in Portadown, Co Armagh.

Lockhart’s demand was that the DUP withdraw the Deputy First Minister, Emma Little-Pengelly , which would – given that it is a joint office – automatically have removed O’Neill as well. Lockhart had already resigned from her role as a party officer over it. DUP leader Gavin Robinson , and the rest of the party’s senior leadership team, disagreed. They opted instead for a range of “sanctions” that include the refusal to participate in joint engagements with O’Neill.

They made clear as recently as the end of last week that the party would not remove Little-Pengelly or indeed trigger the collapse of Northern Ireland’s Stormont institutions. Having made her stand on “principles” and “conscience” – both referenced in her resignation letter – Lockhart had in reality little alternative but to quit. She will sit as an independent unionist MP, though Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) leader Jim Allister has left the door open, emphasising how he looks forward to “working closely” with her.

For the DUP, too, the decision had been made. Robinson, interviewed on BBC Radio on Tuesday morning, spoke of his “regret” at Lockhart’s departure but emphasised the party was “fully behind” the stance it had taken, the result of a “unanimous decision by officers last Thursday [and] unanimous support within the Assembly group”. This was Robinson drawing a line – the party will now want to move on, yet Lockhart’s departure – not least as she was the DUP’s only female MP – is undoubtedly a blow.

Politics is a numbers game and for the DUP, those numbers do not look good. Only two years ago, the DUP went into the Westminster election with eight MPs and came out with five. Now the party is down to four, half the tally of 2024. In recent years, the story for unionism has been one of fragmentation, as illustrated by that 2024 election. That year, the DUP lost a seat apiece to the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the TUV and Alliance – though this, in Lagan Valley, was the consequence of the arrest of the then leader, now convicted paedophile, Jeffrey Donaldson on child sex abuse charges earlier that year.

This fragmentation has been highlighted yet again by Lockhart’s departure. It is telling that unionism is now represented in Westminster by five separate strands of unionism: DUP, UUP, TUV and two independent unionists, Lockhart and Alex Easton (North Down). Three out of its four remaining MPs are men in their 70s – Gregory Campbell, Sammy Wilson and Jim Shannon – and two – Campbell and Wilson – came close to defeat last time around. The DUP therefore has reason to be worried come the next UK general election.

But this is for the future. The elections that matter at the moment are those to the Northern Assembly, now only six months away. The DUP must fight against the backdrop of ongoing tensions – internal, among unionism and in society at large – over the Drumcree fallout, as well as continued revelations about Donaldson, not least an investigation into a fresh allegation of rape against him. Contrast this with the boost Sinn Féin has received over its stance on Drumcree.

The first polling carried out since the dispute, by research agency More In Common, put Sinn Féin up five percentage points to 30 per cent and the DUP up one to 18. The UUP remained unchanged at 13, while the TUV was down one to 11 per cent. Although Robinson is secure for the moment, not least because of the lack of alternative candidates, a poor election would inevitably call his position into question. The 2022 Assembly election was a watershed for the DUP, and for unionism.

Sinn Féin took 29 seats to the DUP’s 25 and with it, for the first time, the position of First Minister. The rematch is due by May at the latest. As unionism continues to splinter further, it is difficult to see how it can mount a realistic challenge.