Shabana Mahmood is facing a mutiny on immigration

Become an Independent member to bookmark this article Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Membership today. Join today Already a member? Log in K eir Starmer failed in many ways, but one of the most important was his mismanagement of Labour MPs. By giving in to a rebellion against his attempt to restrain the rate of increase in disability benefit spending, he was forced into a second round of tax rises, which sealed his unpopularity with the voters. Then, when Andy Burnham presented himself as the messiah from Manchester, a popular leader from outside Westminster, Labour MPs felt no loyalty to the leader who had won them their seats and flocked to have their photo taken with the new broom. The new broom has pleased many of the previously discontented by promoting them, consulting them and generally running a better ego management programme than his predecessor. But now comes the hard part. The announcement of increased gas production from the North Sea Jackdaw field has dismayed many on the Ed Miliband wing of the parliamentary party. Starmer would presumably have gone ahead with it, but we don’t know how he would have managed the party. Burnham did the astute thing of promoting Miliband’s supporter Miatta Fahnbulleh as energy secretary and getting her to do it. The next tests will be harder. Apart from next week’s Budget, the next big issue on which Labour MPs are restive is Shabana Mahmood’s tightening of the rules for permanent settlement. The home secretary has already signalled that she will compromise on her original plan to extend the length of time required to qualify for “indefinite leave to remain” status. Recommended I fear Britain’s politics are about to turn as ugly as Europe’s Nigel Farage is desperate for distraction – so he’s turned on women (again) Harry has chosen to heal the rift in his family – by picking a fight with his family In her speech to Labour conference last month, she said the government would “come to a position that balances fairness for those who came here legally and fairness to British citizens across this country”, after noting that “some have said elements of these reforms are not fair”. ‘The prime minister and home secretary may be united, but we do not yet know what it is that they are united on’ ( Getty ) That was a reference to Angela Rayner who, during her period of liberation from collective ministerial responsibility, called Mahmood’s plan “un-British” . Burnham, who at that time was mayor of Greater Manchester and was prevented from returning to the House of Commons, said he agreed with her. Since then, he was allowed to return to Westminster and adjusted his view, saying that he agreed with Mahmood’s policies overall, while letting it be known that he was considering exempting care workers from the requirement for a longer qualifying period. The exact shape of the compromise has been fought over for months. Yesterday, an anonymous “senior ally” of Mahmood said she retained Burnham’s broad support over the plans: “Andy has been on Shabana’s side throughout this row over ILR. He is holding the line.” Just to prove the point, Mahmood was literally by Burnham’s side at Prime Minister’s Questions today. The prime minister and home secretary may be united, but we do not yet know what it is that they are united on. Whatever the compromise is, Mahmood is bound to present it – unless she resigns, which is most unlikely – as her own idea. But what matters is how many of the 4 million people who came to Britain as part of the post-Brexit surge known as the Boriswave will be granted the right to permanent settlement over the next few years. I assume that Burnham and Mahmood have calculated where to draw the line so that they can be sure that they have a solid majority of Labour MPs behind them. They have been given space by the divided opposition parties. The Conservatives will criticise, but this is a problem of their government’s making, while Reform is finding it increasingly hard to gain a hearing even on its core subject of immigration – not least because of the more extreme position being adopted by Rupert Lowe of the breakaway Restore party . Recommended Andy Burnham’s North Sea gas gamble is greener than you think Our social care system will not survive the next pandemic unless we act now King Charles’s gesture to Aung San Suu Kyi is soft power at its most imaginative Burnham has been lucky in his timing, but he does also seem to be better at making Labour MPs feel that they are being taken seriously. It helps that he has some of the outriders of previous rebellions on his team. Louise Haigh, now effectively his deputy prime minister , played a role in organising the revolt against disability cuts. Starmer’s aides think Rayner was also involved, whereas this time she is likely to be part of the operation to sell the compromise to backbenchers. So I expect the fudge on settlement rights to be announced without too much trouble. But the challenge of tough decisions in the Budget, followed by a return to the issue of disability benefits, is going to be much harder.