Policy U-turn could stall Britain’s take-up of electric vehicles

Electric cars make people happy. More than nine in 10 EV drivers – 94% in a recent poll – are saving money, and a similar number would stick with electric for their next purchase, and recommend them to family and friends. Sales are soaring: more than half of the new cars sold in the UK last month were electric, if hybrids are taken into account, and about 28% of new car sales overall were electric only. This is hardly surprising, given that soaring petrol and diesel costs have pushed up the price of a full tank to about £120. EV drivers are paying about 2.4p a mile. Why then is the government considering a major U-turn on electric vehicle policy that, if followed through, could stall the take-up of EVs, help to close off a route to lower living costs, and dent the UK’s ability to meet its carbon targets? Andy Burnham, the prime minister, wrote in the Guardian this week that he would push ahead with the target of reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 . Despite the go-ahead for the Jackdaw gasfield this week, sources in government also hinted to the Guardian that another large project, the Rosebank oilfield, west of Shetland, was less likely to be greenlighted . However, analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank, seen by the Guardian, shows that the looming decision on the future of electric vehicles could also have a major impact on net zero and carbon budgets, though it has received far less attention. Under the zero emissions vehicle mandate, all new cars and vans sold from 2035 must be fully electric, with interim targets for 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans to be ZEVs by 2030. The end goal of 2035 is likely to remain, but under a consultation that ended on Friday, the 2030 targets could be weakened to 70% or even as low as 50% of new cars. Taken with previous watering down of the policy to allow more sales of hybrid cars – which use both electric and combustion engines – that change would lead to emissions greater than burning all the gas in the Jackdaw field, according to the ECIU. If the mandate were cut more drastically to require only 50% of sales to be EVs by 2030, this could mean an additional 147 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, which would equate to about 58% of the likely emissions from burning the oil produced by the Rosebank field. Jess Ralston, an analyst at the ECIU, said weakening the target would not solve the problems for manufacturers, who are already facing intensified competition from China as increasing numbers of people opt for EVs. It would also not benefit the public because EVs can be £1,750 a year cheaper to run, and potentially more with oil prices rising. “With climate concern high among the public after extreme heat and persisting drought , and public support for net zero up above two-thirds, a decision to U-turn could look very odd,” Ralston said. “Ministers have talked about getting families off the fossil fuel rollercoaster – this would be the opposite, locking in higher driving costs, more air pollution and higher carbon emissions.” Burnham faces a further complication: in 2024, the EU imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, and now wants to limit public subsidies to vehicles made in Europe, under pressure from European carmakers. If Burnham wants closer integration with the EU, and more favourable trade terms, he may be forced to slap matching tariffs on Chinese imports to the UK. This would raise the cost of EVs in the UK and cut off one route to lower living costs. If fully implemented as originally planned, the ZEV mandate could be the largest single carbon-saving measure the government has yet proposed, according to previous research. But after intensive lobbying from carmakers for a weakening , Labour MPs are deeply divided. Car manufacturers in the UK have been slow to retool their plants to EVs, and some have pursued hybrid vehicles instead. Many analysts consider hybrids, which combine a polluting petrol engine and a smaller battery, a technological dead end. By contrast, China has rapidly ramped up its EV manufacturing, and now dominates the global market, producing about three-quarters of all EVs. Sales of EVs have soared, now making up about a quarter of all new car sales around the world. Some Labour MPs in constituencies with car plants side with the manufacturers, while others argue that with petrol prices soaring and unlikely to abate, EVs are a way to lower the cost of living and get Britain off the fossil fuel hook. Chris Hinchliff, Labour MP for North East Hertfordshire, told the Guardian: “Weakening the EV target would be another nail in the coffin of a livable future.” Barry Gardiner, Labour MP for Brent West and former environment minister, said a U-turn would hurt forward-looking companies and favour laggards. “Watering down the mandate means that good companies, who moved straight away to comply, feel they have been unfairly burdened with additional costs while their lazy competitors have sneaked an advantage,” he said. “Government flip-flops are a huge problem for business. State the regulation clearly and then stick to it. Business will then adapt and do what it does best because it knows it has a level playing field.” A government spokesperson said: “We are reviewing the ZEV mandate to ensure it continues to support British industry and investment, and no decisions have been taken. Crucially, the end goal has not changed – we will phase out all new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 and be fully zero emission by 2035, and remain committed to our legally binding net zero targets.” Consumer research shows the 2 million people currently driving EVs in the UK tend to like them: polling by the Electric Vehicle Association found 94% of EV drivers reported they were saving money compared with petrol or diesel cars. A similar number would stay electric for their next car, and recommend an EV to friends or family. Explore more on these topics Electric, hybrid and low-emission cars Greenhouse gas emissions Motoring analysis Share Reuse this content