Despite election fears, US and Israel agree: let’s attack Iran again

In front of a fighter jet at an Israeli airbase, Binyamin Netanyahu chats with President Trump over the phone on loudspeaker. “Donald, we have a job to finish. You said it, and we’ll finish it together.” The video, released on Monday, in which the American president then praises the prime minister, was aimed at Israeli voters before next week’s election. But Iran will also have seen the advert, and it would have only hardened its view that a resumption of war is inevitable. Netanyahu thanks Trump for his endorsement Trump’s closeness to Netanyahu and his readiness to return to war has unsettled many American voters in the lead-up to next month’s midterm elections. Top stories 1 16 of the best safaris in Africa Africa JD Vance, the vice-president, hinted at the damage Trump’s alliance had done to Republican fortunes by pointedly refusing to endorse the Israeli leader . President Trump with Netanyahu and JD Vance in the Oval Office in February last year ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/Getty Images “I’m not anti-endorsing him, I’m not pro-endorsing him, I’m not getting involved in Israeli politics,” Vance said on Monday when asked about the president’s backing for Netanyahu. Advertisement Trump has claimed that he delayed his endorsement until the right time, but Netanyahu’s comments have leant credence to the view that this was another transactional Trump gesture, in return for Netanyahu’s support for another round of war with Iran. Who will win the 2026 midterm elections? Polls and predictions Netanyahu, who had helped to persuade Trump to attack Iran in February by claiming the regime would collapse quickly, may not even need the encouragement. Israel is accustomed to victory over its opponents, and in three years it has severely damaged the so-called axis of resistance of Iranian proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Iran itself has proved a far tougher opponent but the veteran Israeli leader, who has made the Islamic regime’s downfall his life’s mission, appears undeterred. US forces have been stationed in the Middle East for months AP He is not alone. Privately, some Gulf countries and allies of the US have been urging Trump to keep up the pressure on Iran, mainly through a naval blockade that has all but ended Iranian oil exports. Iran’s own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which effectively closed the Gulf in the early weeks of the war, is in tatters, with the US overseeing a route that hugs the Omani coast and exports back to almost prewar levels. Top stories 1 Prepare now for the inheritance tax mess coming for your pension Tax The regime now believes it must either capitulate — something it views as an existential defeat — or escalate. Its hardline leaders, including Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, have chosen the latter option, and hope they can pressure Trump by raising fuel prices before the US midterms. Advertisement “A major escalation or new round of US-Iran war is likely after the midterm elections,” Farzan Sabet, an Iran expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said. The multibillion-dollar reasons Trump hesitates to resume Iran war “Israel would probably join the US in attacking Iran if Binyamin Netanyahu wins the Israeli elections outright, or while retaining the premiership in a caretaker capacity if the government formation process drags out or new elections [are] needed.” Smoke rises from an Israeli strike on Beirut IBRAHIM AMRO/AFP/Getty Images Mediation efforts continue, led by Qatar and Pakistan. Iran has rejected the most recent US demands, which include a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before any US concessions, and it insisted on reverting to the terms of the June ceasefire, which included sanctions relief. What little trust was built during the talks leading to that agreement has gone, with Trump now referring to the Iranian leadership as untrustworthy “scum” — a view they reciprocate. Most commented 1 Forgotten particle may hold key to how universe survived big bang Science 241 comments 2 Lily Allen: ‘I felt I was a vehicle for male pleasure — not my own’ Music 227 comments 3 Doctor Who and me — Russell T Davies on his life in TV Books 24 comments 4 ‘We got a call yesterday. Birth mum’s had another baby’ Parenting 32 comments 5 Budget 2026 predictions: when is it and what could be announced? Economics 235 comments Ali Vaez, a Middle East expert at the International Crisis Group, said: “The outlines of a diplomatic bargain have been visible for months: taking mutual steps to reopen Hormuz, calibrated sanctions relief and resumption of nuclear negotiations.” Advertisement However, both sides appear to have cornered themselves into an escalation. “The difficulty lies in sequencing and trust. Tehran fears that surrendering its maritime leverage first would invite fresh demands; Washington worries that easing pressure would reward coercion without securing lasting constraints,” Vaez added.