Kemi Badenoch woos Middle England back to the ‘no-nonsense’ centre ground

L ike El Niño, insurgent parties of the left and right wreak havoc on Westminster’s otherwise predictable climate at irregular intervals. For the past year I have been reminded by one wise Labour stalwart of a conversation they had with a Tory greybeard during Nigel Farage’s last storm cycle. It was early in the summer of 2019 — Brexit was stuck, parliament seemed broken and for a brief but fervid period the Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats appeared to have been installed as the new duopoly at the top of British politics. These were tough and long days for the MPs toiling under Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May and, for a little while, all seemed lost for the old firm. Remarkably, given just how badly the year would end for the Labour Party, that morning in the Commons tearoom it was the old Tory who needed comfort. Their constituents had voted for Brexit and, as such, they expected them to vote en masse for Farage. “Look,” their Labour friend said. “At the end of the day, there’ll always be us and there’ll always be you. That’s the way it’s always been, and, once this is over, that’s the way it always will be.” Most commented 1 ‘Without violence, no one pays attention’: France returns to barricades Europe 83 comments 2 Deadly strike on Ukraine homes ‘was birthday gift for Putin’ Russia-Ukraine war 58 comments 3 Christmas cards become ‘winter cards’ at primary school Scotland 36 comments 4 Alex Cole-Hamilton defends ‘faked interviews with journalist’ Scotland 12 comments Taken together — as they should be, for shadow cabinet ministers are relishing the prospect of an ideological debate with a refreshed yet unreconstructed Labour — both Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch’s conference speeches show us the enduring power of that consoling mantra on the mainstream psyche. Kemi Badenoch, with her husband, Hamish, in tow, leaves the stage to acclaim at the Conservatives’ conference on Wednesday JACOB KING/WPA/GETTY IMAGES The Badenochs on stage JACOB KING/PA Last week the prime minister rolled back the years and gave the speech his party had long wanted to hear: a romantic defence of an active, interventionist state. In Birmingham, the leader of the opposition responded in kind. Burnham explained at length that Thatcherism was bad, and Badenoch said it was good. Top stories 1 How American billionaires are shaping the future of warfare Technology 2 George Clooney, newly French, plans Italian restaurant in Provence Europe It may be reductive but the argument both leaders would like to have really is as simple as that. Badenoch tried about a dozen anti-Andy arguments on for size but the one that stuck was this: he’s so wrong about the economy he’s “dangerous”, despite the eyelashes, the TikToks and the people-pleasing. Advertisement “They think your income, your pension and your savings are yours to take as they see fit,” Badenoch said. “Labour thinks its ideas are compassionate … but they will make every single person in this country poorer.” What Kemi Badenoch’s inheritance tax cuts mean for you Taxes will go up, as will bills, benefits and interest payments on the national debt — they always do under Labour . The Tories will cut them all, not least by cutting the fetters of regulation away from business, national insurance for employers looking to hire young people, and inheritance tax for people with big family homes. Watch: Badenoch vows to scrap inheritance tax That this line of argument is familiar — and boy, is it familiar — does not mean it will inevitably fall flat politically. There’s a hard budget coming, Labour risks a violent mugging by market reality and, when it gets into a row with the Tories on the economy, tradition dictates that Labour tends to lose badly. Top stories 1 The key takeaways from Kemi Badenoch’s conference speech Politics 2 Southampton’s Tonda Eckert escapes ban for ‘Spygate’ scandal Football 3 Give every child a stake in Britain’s future Economics 4 The remarkable Test recall of Australia batsman who beat cancer Cricket Both leaders have now embraced tradition with an animal lust that seemed beyond their predecessors. History would suggest this is a bolder gambit for Burnham than it is Badenoch. But didn’t the conference hall just love it? Indeed, the first half-hour of her long speech, which she intended to be more deliberative and expository than last year’s crash-bang-wallop bonanza of policy surprises, was all for the faithful, rather than the country. Advertisement What was her message to the latter? It wasn’t just that Labour is a bunch of hopeless spendthrifts who value the dole counter more than the recruiting office, and neither like nor understand business — much as she hopes that bit will resonate with the voters who by dint of earning ought still to vote Tory. Think of all of those Lib Dem seats and the downright wacky Labour gains in the southeast in 2024. Unlike Burnham, who barely deigned to acknowledge that any other politician in the world existed, Badenoch cast extended judgment on Farage and Reform UK too. But here the dividing line was not ideological, despite the emergence of profound differences on political economy. That compliment she paid only to the Labour Party. No, when it came to Reform, Badenoch — like Brendan Rodgers, who once exuded a similar self-confidence as manager of Liverpool FC — spoke of character as the be-all and end-all. Her language was more moralistic and, when it came to race, hit hard. The late Jeffrey Archer , generously eulogised at the beginning of the speech, was once said by his wife to have a “gift for inaccurate précis”. On subjects of this sensitivity it is wise to avoid the same mistake, but a fair summation of Badenoch’s attack on Reform would be this: they’re a weirdo rabble of crooks, racists and drama queens who mustn’t be allowed anywhere near power. It was not quite as blunt as Michael Howard’s “cranks and gadflies” attack on Ukip in 2004 or David Cameron’s dismissal of the same party as “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”. But the intent and effect were the same. Badenoch’s advisers were especially pleased that her refusal to countenance a pact with Reform got a standing ovation. I wonder whether the outwardly loyal MP who only months ago suggested to me that their best chance of survival lay in a coupon election in which Tory candidates pledged to make Farage prime minister was up on their hind legs. There’s no question of that now, anyway. Almost all of what she said could have come out of Sir Keir Starmer’s mouth: indeed much of it did, albeit phrased less elegantly and delivered less competently, at Labour’s conference last year. A new flank of the cordon sanitaire has been drawn in royal blue. Andy Burnham at the Labour conference last month ZEYNEP DEMIR ASLIM/ZUMA PRESS/SHUTTERSTOCK Morgan McSweeney, the strategist who built the strange electoral world in which we now live, used to fret about the 80 of Labour’s 100 most marginal seats in which the Tories held second place. This was a speech for them. But arguably, and paradoxically, it had more to say to the 20 per cent or so of Labour voters who say they would vote Conservative to save themselves from a Reform MP than it did to Farage’s supporters. Badenoch’s team know that many of those voters are lost to the Tories for ever — the focus is on convincing those who have switched allegiance since 2024 to come home. The Tories are now attempting to claw those deserters back to what Badenoch branded the “no-nonsense” centre ground. The offer is orthodox economics and an appeal to Middle England’s squeamishness — there was rather less, if anything, on immigration, public services, life on a low income and any of the other issues that have convinced the stubborn core of Reform’s support that politics is broken and only a radical solution will do. It is a familiar electoral pitch, and it is likely to endear this popular leader to some very familiar places once again. But in much of the country, no matter how hard Burnham and Badenoch try, these are likely to remain unfamiliar times for a while yet.