Depleted stockpiles, vulnerable allies may limit how much Trump can escalate Iran war

President Donald Trump is signaling he could ramp up military action against Iran after the midterms as diplomatic efforts falter. But resuming the U.S. air campaign seems unlikely to change Tehran’s calculus and limited U.S. stockpiles of munitions and other constraints will limit Trump’s ability to protect American forces and Gulf allies from Iranian counterattacks. So far, Trump has stopped short of intensifying the U.S. military campaign, hesitating to strike energy sites, target Iran’s newest cadre of leaders or send in ground troops.

Iran has openly tried to influence the U.S. midterms. On Tuesday, the spokesman for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, spoke in Tehran and made an appeal directly to American voters to rebuke U.S. leaders in the midterm elections. Even after the midterms, American munitions stockpiles will still be running low and Washington would struggle to protect Gulf partners from the Iranian retaliation that hitting oil facilities or other critical infrastructure are once again likely to provoke, analysts, lawmakers and former officials said.

Trump disputes that the U.S. is low on munitions. "It’s not true," Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sept. 22, adding that the U.S. has "more munitions than we could ever possibly think of using." Trump renewed threats of military force earlier this week when he rejected Iran’s most recent proposal for a seven-day truce that demanded the U.S. to make significant concessions upfront. The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

"There are inherent risks to military operations and their ability to achieve strategic effects, whether those are an air campaign or even a land campaign,” said retired Gen. Joseph Votel, head of U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019. “Could we apply more military resources? Yes, but I'm not sure that that would change the outcome of where we are right now.” Speaking to leaders at the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 22, Trump said he has a “big decision to make” whether to make a deal with Iran or “annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly.”

He believes Iran will be under pressure to agree to his terms after the midterm elections on Nov. 3. “We'll make a deal right after the election because it doesn't make sense for them not to,” Trump said. Some lawmakers briefed on current operations were more skeptical about the U.S. ability to ramp things up — both tactically and strategically. “There’s a real question about whether we have sufficient defenses at this point,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., told MS NOW.

“The Iranians are going to launch a major and sustained response if we engage in systematic bombing.” The U.S. “has munitions in terms of the bombs but not the interceptors” to properly defend an escalation, ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee Sen. Mark Warner D-Va. told MS NOW. “The war right now is very unpopular because nobody’s sensing any real progress,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told reporters on Capitol Hill last week.

The administration hopes Iran will be more flexible as Iran’s economy worsens and the U.S. has been able to increase oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz closer to prewar levels. But oil prices remain high, a significant challenge for the White House weeks before voters go to the polls to decide if Trump’s Republican party will continue to control the House and Senate. The U.S. has scored tactical victories — choking off Iran’s oil exports with a naval blockade, gutting Iran’s navy and destroying many of its air defenses and missile launchers —, but Iran still maintains a significant missile stockpile and its nuclear material and hasn’t caved at the negotiating table the way the Trump administration has hoped.

Even that pressure has so far not changed Iran’s behavior, said Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee. “The blockade on Iranian oil is actually much more effective” than airstrikes, Smith said. The oil blockade on Iran, Smith said, “doesn’t end the regime but it weakens it.” The U.S. has weapons it can use against Iran, but using them in the Iran war impacts what’s available for other parts of the U.S military.

“Yes, we have the munitions but at what cost to the rest of our military?" Smith said. Gulf officials have flocked to Washington in recent weeks to urge the Trump administration and Congress to avert further escalation. “Every time they hear Trump talking about a military escalation, they know they're the ones that will bear the brunt of an Iranian reprisal, and that obviously makes them nervous,” said Michael Ratney, ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 2023 to 2025.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Sen. Tom Cotton R-Ark., Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss. and Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., this week after Trump said he rejected Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire. While the U.S. can maintain the naval blockade for some months, diverting resources there impacts the U.S. military’s ability to respond to other crises that come up, Votel said.

“It defers maintenance. It defers readiness. It defers training activities,” Votel said. “The readiness impacts are going to be felt much down the line when we need to do something else,” he said, such as “moving ships back to the Pacific.” The Trump administration has repeatedly misread Iran’s ability to hold out under economic and military pressure, says Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official working on Middle East issues now at the Atlantic Council.

“The president has a naval force that's stretched thin and exhausted, Gulf partners who increasingly doubt America will prioritize their security and defense, and an Iranian leadership that's demonstrated a willingness to to take more pain than the U.S. and its allies can probably accept,” said Panikoff.