Israel prepares for another war with Iran, warns next conflict could look very different

Israel continues to prepare for the possibility of another round of fighting with Iran despite contradictory messages from U.S. President Donald Trump in recent weeks. Alongside continued military buildup, including the acquisition of additional aircraft, and following a review of lessons learned from Operation Roaring Lion, the Israeli defense establishment is working to maintain operational readiness and prepare for another potential military campaign.

Defense officials recognize, however, that despite the experience gained in previous operations, Israel cannot assume the next conflict will unfold in the same way. Iran has also studied Israeli and American tactics, identified operational patterns and adjusted its methods during the fighting. Israeli assessments suggest that the next round, if it occurs, will differ from previous confrontations. The objective would be a swift, intensive campaign concluded in the shortest possible time, rather than a prolonged war that could draw the region into an extended conflict.

Meanwhile, defense officials acknowledge that once a war begins, there is no way to predict how it will develop or ultimately end. Israeli officials believe the process of drawing lessons from previous fighting has not been one-sided. Iranian forces also examined Israeli operations, identified patterns, responded to military moves and adapted their tactics as the fighting progressed. Israel assesses that Iran is undertaking a significant effort to study its adversary.

Defense officials have stressed that Iran's ability to complicate Israel's operations in a future conflict should not be underestimated. The defense establishment is therefore examining how Iran might operate in another confrontation. During previous rounds of fighting, Iran made little use of its air force. Many aircraft never took off, and a series of Israeli strikes damaged Tehran's air capabilities while its planes were still on the ground.

Israeli defense officials believe Iran remains unlikely to deploy its aircraft in another round of fighting, given Israeli and American air superiority. From Tehran's perspective, such a confrontation would be unfavorable given the balance of forces. Instead, Israeli assessments suggest Iran would prefer to rely on its relative strengths, particularly its air defense systems and missile capabilities. That means Israeli preparations for another conflict cannot rely solely on lessons from previous campaigns.

They must also account for the changes and adjustments made by Iran. Military cooperation with the United States and Israel's unique capabilities Alongside the IDF's preparations, cooperation with the United States is expected to remain a central component of any future campaign. Israel regards the United States as a strategic partner with exceptional military capabilities but also recognizes that the relationship is not one-sided. There are operational and intelligence capabilities in which Israel possesses unique advantages that the Americans need.

Israeli defense officials believe that combining the capabilities of the two militaries will again play a significant role in any future conflict, with each side contributing distinct strengths that do not necessarily overlap. One of the questions left unresolved after Operation Roaring Lion concerns its results regarding Iran's nuclear program. The operation lasted considerably longer than initially anticipated, and criticism emerged during the campaign that nuclear targets were not as central to the military effort as some officials had expected.

In practice, most strikes focused on military infrastructure, energy facilities and targets associated with the Iranian regime and symbols of its authority. There were also claims that the objective of toppling the Iranian regime had gained prominence during the campaign. Nevertheless, Israeli defense officials reject assertions that the operation failed to achieve its stated objectives. Israel maintains that the campaign met its goals, foremost among them setting back Iran's nuclear program.

However, officials acknowledge that this did not eliminate the need to address the nuclear threat. The defense establishment recognizes that a significant unresolved issue remains: Iran still possesses its enriched nuclear material. According to Israeli assessments, shared by other Western intelligence agencies, the location of Iran's highly enriched uranium is known, with the stockpile estimated at approximately 450 kilograms. Monitoring of the material continues, and Israeli officials believe it will eventually have to be addressed, whether through an agreement or another course of action.

For Israel, the fate of the enriched uranium remains one of the central issues requiring a solution even after the military campaign has ended. As long as the material remains in Iranian hands, Israel does not consider the nuclear threat to have been removed from its security agenda. Israel is therefore maintaining its readiness and preparing for the possibility of another military campaign against the Islamic Republic, recognizing that the next confrontation will not necessarily repeat what has already occurred.

Defense officials acknowledge that another round of fighting could present challenges different from those Israel has faced so far.