The US wants to cut off Iran’s access to weapons via its land borders, will this work? - analysis

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced that it is establishing a task force aimed at preventing Iran from using land routes and the Caspian Sea to transport advanced weapons, sanctioned materials, and other equipment.

The fresh operation represents an expansion of American efforts to restrict the Islamic Republic's access to new weapons and financial networks.

This comes after an eight-month naval blockade.CENTCOM says it has already prevented Tehran from exporting billions of dollars in crude oil. Task Force Iron Gate, part of the new CENTCOM plan, will have “an internal staff of approximately 20 civilian and military personnel based in Tampa, Florida,” the US said.“The new CENTCOM team will coordinate with other US government agencies on preventing the movement of advanced weapons systems, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials, and illegal revenue streams across Iran's land borders and the Caspian Sea,” it added.

The new move also comes after the midterm elections, with many critics of the Iran war now empowered in the US, who may use their power in Congress to try to rein in the war effort.

This means that the United States could have limited time to execute new operations. The question is whether this latest attempt to interdict trade at Iran's land border will work.It is also not clear what the US will be doing in order to cut off Iran from various weapons supplies. It is known that the regime continues to try to build missiles and drones. Iran also uses supplies from Russia and China to keep its military-industrial complex humming.Iran's various land bordersCENTCOM said it wants to “prevent Iran from using ground routes to transport advanced weapons and other materials.”Understanding the layout of Iran's land borders can help clarify what this means and how CENTCOM aims to operate in this case.Iran's longest border is with Iraq, 1,599 kilometers long.

Next comes its long border with Turkmenistan at 1,148 km., and then Afghanistan at 921 km. Its border with Pakistan is similarly long, at around 900 km. It also has shorter borders with Azerbaijan (611 km.) and Turkey (534 km.). Lastly, it borders Armenia with a 44 km perimeter.Trying to cut off Iran from these borders appears to be an immense task. The US has already pressured Iraq to cut off Iranian air routes, and there is some pressure to deal with the Iran border crossings as well.There are numerous Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

How will all of this clandestine trade be stopped?It's not clear what Iran may be bringing in from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. The US has good ties with Azerbaijan, and Turkey is a NATO member.CENTCOM Commander directs formation of Task Force Iron GatePakistan has complex ties with Iran. China has good relations with Pakistan and may use it as a conduit to supply Iran. However, Islamabad also has warm relations with the Trump administration.

Significantly, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have the new Mecca Defense Alliance pact. This adds many pieces to the puzzle.CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper will direct the Task Force Iron Gate team to coordinate with other US government agencies in addressing weapons trafficking and sanctions evasion across Iran's borders, CENTCOM said over the weekend.“The establishment of Task Force Iron Gate reinforces the success of our ironclad blockade against Iran at sea,” Cooper said in the statement, broadcast on Saturday.

“Strengthening CENTCOM's collaboration with US interagency partners will further constrain Iran's ability to finance terrorism, rebuild weapons factories, and replenish its military.”He added that the American naval blockade has prevented Iran from exporting over $25 billion in crude oil in recent months.CENTCOM said strict enforcement continues against ships entering or departing Iranian ports.

This comes as the US Rewards for Justice program is also offering millions of dollars for information on Iran's nuclear program. Will the two new initiatives pressure Iran? Will they cut Iran off from some supplies it needs for its weapons programs?

The establishment of the task force suggests that Washington is increasingly concerned about Iran's ability to circumvent maritime restrictions via overland trade and transportation networks.Unlike a naval blockade, which focuses on shipping routes and ports, monitoring land borders involves a complex network of roads, border crossings, and commercial transport companies. It appears to be a major challenge.