Kemi Badenoch is stronger than ever but faces fight of her life to be Prime Minister

Kemi Badenoch is stronger than ever but faces fight of her life to be Prime Minister Her poll ratings have been transformed in a year but leading the Conservatives back into power would be one of the greatest comebacks in modern times Share Article Share Article Facebook X LinkedIn Reddit Bluesky Email Copy Link Link copied Bookmark Add us as preferred source Comments ANALYSIS By David Williamson , Chief Political Commentator 10:47, Sat, Oct 3, 2026 Updated: 10:50, Sat, Oct 3, 2026 Kemi Badenoch has made major progress in a year but has an epic challenge ahead (Image: James Manning/PA Wire) Kemi Badenoch is one of the three Britons most likely to live in Number 10 after the next election and she will assure the Conservative faithful from the conference stage in Birmingham that their party has a true shot at returning to power. Party conferences are traditionally dangerous times for leaders. Activists and MPs from across the realm are thrown together in a febrile, confined environment where there is free-flowing wine. There are few settings more conducive to plotting coups. But Mrs Badenoch has no snarling rival. She is the unquestioned master of the shadow cabinet; there is no campaign to bring Boris Johnson back; and the likes of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman have long since joined the ranks of Reform UK. She can point to Ipsos polling for clear evidence of progress. In September last year, the figures were dire; just 14% of Britons were satisfied with her performance. In 12 months that has doubled to 28% satisfied. That may not sound impressive but Britons hold politicians in low regard. Article continues below ADVERTISEMENT Despite all the talk of a “Burnham bounce”, the new Prime Minister last month had a net satisfaction rating of -13, only slightly better than Mrs Badenoch’s -18. The Greens’ Zack Polanski had a far worse -32, with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage far back on -37. All this gives her reason to look to the year ahead with renewed ambition. Mr Burnham will not look like a fresh face for long. Seven out of 10 Britons said they were dissatisfied with the Government, and the more Mr Burnham looks like a creature of Westminster Labour, the more he will be tarred with its unpopularity. Get the latest politics news - straight from our team in Westminster and more I would like to receive emails from the Daily Express featuring our latest products, services, offers, and promotions from across the Reach Plc family . Subscribe Invalid email You agree you are 18 or over. We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you've consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. You can unsubscribe at any time. More Info . Andy Burnham will know his novelty value will be short-lived (Image: Sean Hansford | Manchester Evening News) Mrs Badenoch has adopted Right-wing policies – such as pledging to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and deport foreign criminals – but only one in four Britons consider the Tories “extreme”, compared with the 58% who say this about Reform. This suggests efforts to hold onto the Tory Right without utterly alienating moderates are working. Shoring up the base is a vital exercise for the leader of a party which suffered such a devastating rejection by voters. Back in September 2025, the Conservatives had a grave problem. Of the people who voted Tory in the last general election, less than half (47%) planned to back Mrs Badenoch’s party again, with 39% intending to support Reform. This September, 63% of the Tory-voting cohort from 2024 said they would vote Conservative again, with the slice planning to back Mr Farage’s party shrinking to 22%. There is no sign that centrist Tories are abandoning the party. Just 4% of those who backed Rishi Sunak 's Conservatives would vote Labour now, with a mere 3% backing the Liberal Democrats. Article continues below ADVERTISEMENT David Cameron went to the Arctic Circle to inspect a glacier ahead of the 2010 election (Image: -) An epic journey awaits before the next general election, due no later than August 2029. Only one in five people think the Conservatives are ready to form the next Government (two points less than those who say Reform is ready for power). Voters are more likely to see the Conservatives as out of date (54%) than any other party; the Tory party is the least likely to thought of as concerned about people in real need in Britain (21%). Article continues below ADVERTISEMENT David Cameron and his fellow Tory modernisers responded to a similar challenge before the 2010 election by wrapping themselves in the environmental agenda, talking up the value of the “big society” and travelling to icy terrains to frolic before photographers with a husky. But Mr Cameron did not face a formidable challenger on the Right who is a vehement critic of the net zero agenda. Mrs Badenoch may well hope that when the next election comes voters will be so weary of Labour’s tax rises that they will rush to support a Tory party which promises to make bold cuts to public expenditure and pass the savings onto them. There is little incentive for her to soften her image when immigration is a top issue for people who backed the Conservatives (73%) or Reform (85%) the last time the country went to the polls. In the coming months, she will hearten the Tory infantry if the party surpasses 2024 levels of support and regularly beats Reform in the polls. The great uncertainty is what happens if the Right-wing vote is still divided when Mr Burnham decides it is time for an election, but she is clear she has no interest in pacts with Reform. Her challenge is immense but her lieutenants admire her straight-talking and her refusal to be rushed into prematurely unveiling policies on difficult issues. Mrs Badenoch has seen off one Labour leader and she is pursuing power with a new vigour; she is in this contest to win it and she wants to do it her way. Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch Share Article Share Article Facebook X LinkedIn Reddit Bluesky Email Copy Link Link copied Bookmark Add us as preferred source Comments