Why Sadiq Khan will win a fourth term as powerful Mayor of London

Never take voters for granted. They have sprung enough surprises on Britain in recent years. To name a few - the 2016 Brexit referendum, the 2017 general election when Theresa May threw away her Commons majority, more recently the Runcorn and Helsby by-election won by Reform UK by six votes, and the Green victory in Gorton and Denton. Having said that, Lord Sadiq Khan is heading for a fourth term in City Hall . Whether this happens depends principally on two factors.

Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey delivering his budget in the House of Commons (House of Commons/PA) PA Wire The first is whether he decides to seek another term in office, the second if he wins the contest in 2028. Lord Khan is expected to make up his mind next year on whether to throw his hat into the ring again. There have been signs that he would not, in particular what appeared to be the start of a campaign by Brent East MP Dawn Butler to be Labour’s mayoral candidate, with the giant GMB union backing her.

But in the Budget, Lord Khan was given new powers over income tax and business rates in the biggest reforms since the London mayoralty was created in 2000. They could allow City Hall to boost borrowing by £10 billion to press ahead with new infrastructure projects such as the Bakerloo line extension, the West London Orbital and the DLR extension to Thamesmead. Labour MPs (clockwise) Dawn Butler, Rosena Allin-Khan, Steve Reed and David Lammy who could seek to be the party’s mayoral contender Getty/PA Chancellor John Healey also gave backing to Business Rate Retention Zones to fund Lord Khan’s £20 million plan for cross-Channel trains to stop at Stratford International Station, and for a major upgrade of Euston.

That’s a lot of ribbon cutting pencilled into the diary in coming years. Is Lord Khan really going to step aside and hand over the scissors to Ms Butler, Tottenham MP David Lammy, Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan or Steve Reed, MP for Streatham and Croydon North who may all be vying to be Labour’s mayoral candidate if he did? Being London Mayor is an all-consuming job and there are no doubt reasons why Lord Khan might still decide to call it a day after three terms in City Hall.

But this looks significantly less likely than a week ago. Writing in The Standard after the Budget, Andy Burnham told how he is forging a “London Deal” with Lord Khan. London Mayor Lord Khan has slammed Brexit AFP/Getty We don’t yet have a full picture, though, of how the capital will fare under his Government. While the mayor has been handed new tax powers, will this be followed by unfair cuts to central Government funding for London in next year’s Spending Review which could dent the recent surge in support for Labour in the city?

Even if it did, polls show that if Lord Khan decided to stand again he would win, probably comfortably. His strong anti-Brexit stance, leading calls for Britain to rejoin the EU, is likely to unite the dominant Left vote in London behind him, as the Right vote remains fractured. His new tax levers will also make him one of the most powerful mayors in Europe and if he uses them wisely his standing may go up in the capital. So the London mayoral election in May 2028 may have been significantly swayed by the Budget announcements, some 554 days before a single vote is cast.