COP31 summit offers opportunity to link climate intelligence with preparedness: Head of meteorological group

The upcoming UN climate summit COP31 in Türkiye offers an opportunity to connect advances in climate intelligence with preparedness and early warning systems, the director-general of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said Thursday. Speaking at a virtual press conference organized by the EU's climate agency Copernicus, Florian Pappenberger said advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are significantly improving forecasting capabilities and enabling earlier warnings for heat waves and storms.

"The real difference is made when people take decisions," he said, stressing that improved predictions must be accompanied by effective action from authorities and emergency planners. Pappenberger said ECMWF is working to equip national meteorological and hydrological services with greater confidence to use emerging technologies, enabling them to issue earlier warnings and support timely responses to extreme weather events. He noted that AI-powered forecasting can deliver results more quickly and with greater skill, helping improve early warning capabilities, while emphasizing the importance of evaluating both approaches in parallel.

Pappenberger also underlined the importance of international cooperation, saying that ECMWF develops forecasting capabilities in partnership with 35 countries. "I think, at COP31, it really sort of the opportunity is to connect this climate intelligence with preparedness, which sort of links back to the early warning for all, and really just remember that better predictions really only matter if we do better decisions," he said. Meanwhile, Vincent-Henri Peuch, ECMWF's director for EU engagement, said the accumulation of climate records, including exceptional atmospheric and ocean heat and intense wildfires, provides tangible evidence that the climate is changing.

He warned that these developments are exposing people, ecosystems, and economies to significantly higher climate-related risks, reinforcing the need for urgent global action. Describing climate action as a key priority for COP31, Peuch said climate records should serve not only as a wake-up call but also as a call to action. COP31 will take place in the southern Turkish city of Antalya on Nov. 9-20, bringing together world leaders, experts and civil society representatives to discuss international efforts to address climate change.

The conference's leaders' summit is scheduled for Nov. 11-12.