Storm Austen: What is 'explosive cyclogenesis' and where will be affected?

Storm Austen is a deep low pressure system rapidly intensifying over the Atlantic, with a process known as ‘explosive cyclogenesis’ raising the chance of some disruptive weather as the system approaches the UK. The first named storm of the 2026/27 season is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain from late Thursday into Friday, with exposed coastal areas facing the risk of powerful gusts. The Met Office has warned that gusts could exceed 70 to 80mph in the most exposed coastal locations, while speeds of 50 to 60mph are possible more widely within the wind-warning area.

Rainfall totals of 20 to 30mm are also forecast in many places, with higher accumulations possible over western high ground and further north on Friday. The storm is expected to sweep in from the south-west through the early hours of Friday and track eastwards across the southern half of the UK through the day. Credit: PA What is ‘explosive cyclogenesis‘ - and why is Storm Austen being described as a ‘weather bomb’? Explosive cyclogenesis is the meteorological term for the exceptionally rapid intensification of a low-pressure system.

It is often referred to as a 'weather bomb' because of how quickly the system can deepen, potentially generating powerful winds and severe weather. The term 'weather bomb' is an unofficial expression originating in American meteorological research in the 1980s, describing a low-pressure system deepening or strengthening unusually rapidly. While it has a scientific basis, the term can sound sensationalist and misleading. The actual impacts depend on the storm’s track, wind strength and rainfall, and the areas affected.

How does it happen? The process typically occurs when atmospheric conditions combine to enhance a rapid fall in central pressure (a deepening area of low pressure). A strong jet stream can help enhance this development, while contrasts between air masses provide additional energy for the developing depression. Storm Austen is forecast to deepen rapidly over the Atlantic as it interacts with the jet stream. Whether Austen meets a strict threshold in it's development will be assessed against the observed and forecast pressure changes later on Thursday, rather than assumed from the speed of it’s development alone.

Jersey schools to close as Storm Austen looms Forecasters warn two storms could hit the UK in 48 hours Which areas will Storm Austen affect, and what impact could it have? The current forecast points to the south-west of the UK being among the first areas affected as the storm approaches late Thursday night, before the system moves from west to east through Friday. The Met Office has issued a yellow wind warning covering parts of southern England and south Wales and an amber warning for Cornwall and Devon.

Exposed coastal locations will see gusts of 70 to 80mph, with widespread gusts of 50 to 60mph possible within the warning area. Strong winds will bring disruption to travel, while flying debris and falling branches may pose a hazard. Power outages are also possible in affected areas. Heavy rain will add to the impacts, with 20 to 30mm possible in many locations and higher totals over higher ground and west facing hills. How unusual is a storm like this? ‘Explosive cyclogenesis’ during a storm is a recognised feature of Atlantic weather, particularly during autumn and winter.

Not every storm reaches the technical threshold required to be classified as this, and the term does not automatically mean that every part of the UK will experience extreme conditions. For Storm Austen, the main concern is the potential for strong winds and heavy rain, particularly in exposed coastal areas and locations vulnerable to flooding or travel disruption. Winds are expected to ease later on Friday as Austen moves towards the North Sea.

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