Burnham's poll bounce grows after £100 giveaway - but benefits danger looms

Labour’s ‘Burnham bounce’ in the polls shows no signs of abating despite a heavily criticised first Budget, with the latest exclusive polling for The i Paper showing the party extending its lead over Reform UK and the Tories. The polling was carried out after the Budget was delivered, and also shows that while economists criticised Chancellor John Healey’s measures, voters felt much more favourably towards them. Labour is now on 31 per cent according to the polling from BMG Research, nine points ahead of Reform on 22 and ten points clear of Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party.

It is an increase of three points on last month, and continues the rise in Labour’s fortunes since Andy Burnham took over in July, when the party was on 23 per cent, behind Reform on 27 per cent. It marks a remarkable recovery for Labour under Burnham. It is the highest polling since August 2024 – a month after the General Election – and follows almost a year of the party failing to get above 23 per cent under Sir Keir Starmer, and of trailing to Reform.

For Nigel Farage the poll is more bad news. Reform continue to fall from their high water mark of 35 per cent in August 2025 and recorded their lowest share of the vote since October 2024. Badenoch will be buoyed by maintaining a slow but steady recovery with their highest vote share since March 2025. She also comes out on top of leaders popularity, with a plus 6 favourability rating, up 4 points, with Burnham also in positive territory on plus three.

Farage is on minus 20. The results will do little to dampen Westminster chatter that the Prime Minister will be tempted to call an early election. While most observers now think May 2028 is the likeliest date , the PM will have to consider how long the Tories and Reform will split voters on the right, and how long his popularity can be maintained. While Burnham has repeatedly insisted he will not call a snap election, Robert Struthers, head of public perceptions at BMG, said the numbers would “only add to calls in Labour for an election sooner rather than later”.

The polling also found that Wednesday’s Budget is the most popular fiscal event since BMG began tracking them in 2022, with more people having positive than negative views about the announcements from Healey . Thirty-three per cent felt positive about Healey’s Budget, compared to 28 per cent who felt negative about it, making it the first fiscal event since 2022 which more people have viewed positively than negatively. More people also thought the Budget would be positive for their own household finances than negative, with 26 per cent believing they would be better off compared to 23 per cent who thought they would be worse off .

However, a much larger number – 47 per cent – thought the Budget would make “no real difference” to them. Struthers said the contrast with the Budget delivered last year by the previous chancellor Rachel Reeves was “stark”, with negative reactions having “almost halved” between the two fiscal events. The most popular measure in the Budget was Healey’s decision to extend the VAT cut to electricity bills to July 2027, which is supported by 77 per cent of people.

The new tax allowance for low-income pensioners is supported by 71 per cent, while the decision to hand £100 to help with energy bills to households in council tax bands A to D is supported by 69 per cent . But there remained a warning over welfare spending, with two-in-five, or 38 per cent, saying out of work benefits are too high, more than twice the 15 per cent who say they are too low, and against the 29 per cent who think they are about right.

Healey came under sustained criticism on Thursday after initially saying the welfare bill would be cut this Parliament, before the Treasury back-tracked and said there is essentially no timetable. Burnham says he wants to cut welfare in a ‘Labour way’ – by getting people back to work. But this could take ten years to fulfil, The i Paper reported on Thursday. Struthers said that the support for the Budget principally reflected “wider positive vibes” about Burnham’s premiership.

“Many of the measures are popular, particularly those on energy bills,” he said. “But that’s not unusual. Previous chancellors have announced measures that look popular when you poll them in isolation. “Nor is it that people have pored over the detail. Fewer people say they’ve heard anything about this Budget than about any of Labour’s previous fiscal events. “The positive reaction is less about the Budget itself and more likely down to the wider positive vibes around the government.”

He went on: “‘Vibes’ can sound dismissive, but getting them right is a real political achievement. “The real difference is that this Budget fits a wider story that is resonating. Burnham’s breathing space message is all about the cost of living, the single issue people worry about most. “The measures aren’t big, but they seem well-intentioned and go to the heart of people’s day-to-day lives.” BMG polled 1,529 adults in Great Britain on 28 and 29 October.