The Guardian, on Climate, 28 October 2026

3.0out of 10Minor

Menindee Lakes water levels drop to lowest in five years as experts warn of mass fish deaths

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Water levels at Menindee Lakes in western New South Wales have fallen to their lowest point in five years, prompting the state government to impose upstream water use restrictions as experts warn of potential mass fish deaths over summer. Combined storage at Menindee Lakes fell below 480 gigalitres earlier this month, the first time since 2021. In the upper Menindee Lakes, water volumes have dropped below 250GL, a level that triggers temporary state water restrictions across parts of the northern Murray-Darling basin.

Mass fish deaths feared as Minns government promise to restore Murray-Darling rivers in doubt Read more The restrictions limit access for some irrigators and are intended to preserve water for critical human needs and the environment. , with experts warning of a growing risk of summer fish kills unless flows down to Menindee Lakes via the Darling-Baaka River improve.

Menindee was the site of catastrophic fish kills in 2018, 2019 and 2023, which saw millions of dead fish wash up along stretches of the Darling-Baaka. “Government officials are predicting with a level of certainty that unless there’s more water flowing into the Baaka-Darling River that there will be fish kills at Menindee this summer,” said Prof Jamie Pittock of the Australian National University and the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.

“We need a major rainfall event to happen and for the state governments to prevent irrigators from pumping out the first flush of water.” Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as a free newsletter Graeme McCrabb, who was one of the first Menindee residents to raise the alarm about the 2018-19 disasters, said the combined Menindee Lakes had reached “drought reserve volumes”. He said this effectively meant conservation of water “at all costs”.

McCrabb said he was hopeful that recent rainfall in Queensland may result in some replenishment of the Menindee system. “There are some small inflows coming across the Queensland border now which probably give us some hope for the summer. But we would need more on top of that,” he said. “If we don’t get inflows, the risk [of fish kills] would be very high in January or February.” He said a milder summer would also lower the risk. skip past newsletter promotion Free newsletter | When he publishes Sign up to Clear Air Australia Adam Morton brings you incisive analysis about the politics and impact of the climate crisis Enter your email Sign up after newsletter promotion “I’m worried about fish kills to be honest,” McCrabb said.

“It’s a tough time or sad time when the water starts to get that real green algal look.” Days after winning the 2023 state election, the premier, Chris Minns, and senior state ministers visited Menindee and committed to an investigation of the mass fish kills . An expert panel was established under the northern basin connectivity program , which recommended limiting upstream overextraction during dry periods, to help maintain flows in tributaries into the Darling-Baaka River to Menindee Lakes.

This was to try to reduce the risk of catastrophes such as fish kills and large-scale drying. The panel delivered its final report two years ago but the state government is yet to implement it. McCrabb said he was disappointed the government had not followed through on the recommendations of the connectivity panel. “Since the fish kills, government agencies have made no policy changes to improve water quality outcomes,” he said. Comment has been sought from the NSW water minister, Rose Jackson.

Explore more on these topics Murray-Darling Basin New South Wales politics Water Fish Drought New South Wales news Share Reuse this content

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What we found (1)

The Guardian reports clearly on falling water levels at Menindee Lakes, the risk of summer fish kills and the state government's failure to act on its own expert panel's report. In its own words it puts the low water down only to low rainfall and upstream extraction, and never says that warming makes droughts like this more frequent or severe. Given that the story is mainly about water management, this gap is minor.

  1. Leaves out the climate link

    Minor

    “It follows periods of low rainfall in the catchment throughout the past 12 months”

    Why this matters
    The words "periods of low rainfall" give dry weather as the cause of the falling lakes, with no mention of the warming that makes drought more likely.
    The impression it gives
    A reader comes away thinking the dry spell and the fish kill risk are a matter of weather luck and upstream pumping alone.
    The context
    Human-caused warming has made agricultural and ecological drought more frequent or more severe. The article's only reference to the climate crisis is a newsletter promotion, not its reporting. Because the piece mainly holds the government to account over overextraction, the gap is minor.

    How we know

    • On the recordThat warming has made hot extremes, heavy rainfall, agricultural and ecological drought, fire weather and intense tropical cyclones more frequent or more severe.ipcc.ch (opens in a new tab)
    • Checked against the whole articleIt never uses the words “warming”.

    Show it in the article

What it gets right

  • “The panel delivered its final report two years ago but the state government is yet to implement it.”

    The article states in its own voice that the government has not acted on its own expert panel's report. It names who has failed to act.

  • “Menindee was the site of catastrophic fish kills in 2018, 2019 and 2023, which saw millions of dead fish wash up along stretches of the Darling-Baaka.”

    It gives the reader the scale and dates of the earlier disasters, so the warning is not left abstract.

  • “Comment has been sought from the NSW water minister, Rose Jackson.”

    It names the minister responsible and records that she was asked to respond.

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