‘Impossible to predict Trump’: IDF prepares for renewed war with Iran

As pressure mounts on U.S. President Donald Trump not to resume the military campaign against Iran following the Republicans' defeat in the midterm elections, the IDF is preparing for a possible resumption of fighting. An Israeli source familiar with the matter stressed Thursday that "there is no way to predict Trump's behavior." Another senior Israeli official assessed that "the pressure on Trump not to act increased yesterday," but emphasized that "trying to predict his mood is a dangerous business."

A third senior official described the dilemma in Washington: "Right now, the equation for Republicans is simple: They lost because of the war, and the war happened because of Bibi. The question is how that will affect Trump. It's hard to know. He's angry and frustrated, and he changes his position every two hours. Nobody understands what he'll ultimately do." Another Israeli source pointed to efforts by Vice President JD Vance and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff to prevent another round of fighting with Iran, which Trump previously suggested could take place after the elections.

The source said Vance's recent social media post could also be interpreted in that context. "But Trump could ignore them and attack anyway, just to show that he's strong and doesn't care about the midterm election results," he said. "He has a window of opportunity until the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, and, in fact, even after that. On top of that, the Iranians keep provoking him, and Trump doesn't like being provoked. With that redhead, you just never know."

White House officials and staff said overnight Wednesday into Thursday that Vance's post analyzing the reasons for the Republican midterm defeat, particularly the war with Iran, had surprised many in Washington. According to Reuters, White House officials were informed about the post before its publication, but some viewed it as a departure from Trump's position, even though the president himself acknowledged that his deputy's assessment was "largely true."

"The reason we lost is the war," Vance declared on X. "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so." Vance, regarded as one of the leading potential contenders for the 2028 presidential election, also described earlier advice to end the war as "sound advice." Vance wrote that before the election he had spoken with a pollster, whom he described as one of the smartest people he knew in politics, who predicted a Republican defeat.

"I felt bad about Tuesday, but even I was surprised," he wrote. According to Vance, the pollster had identified large numbers of angry voters who supported Trump in 2024 but intended to vote Democratic this time. When asked what might bring them back, four answers accounted for nearly all the responses: ending the war with Iran, focusing on the cost of living, putting America first and changing the U.S. relationship with Israel. Donald Trump Jr., the president's son, who also opposes the war with Iran, shared the post and expressed his full agreement.

Trump himself responded later, saying that Vance's assessment was largely correct because the war had contributed to a short-term increase in gasoline prices. Nevertheless, he insisted he would make the same decision again because, in his view, military action was the only long-term solution to the Iranian nuclear threat. "You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon," he said. Asked whether the war had been worth the cost, Trump answered that he believed it had been and that there had been no alternative.

He said he had anticipated an even greater increase in oil prices when he decided to launch the campaign, but considered preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons essential. Vance's public departure from the administration's previous messaging could further complicate Trump's deliberations as he considers whether to resume major military operations against Tehran. U.S. officials who spoke to Reuters said the option remained under consideration despite the Republican defeat, and potentially even because of its political consequences.

With no clear path toward ending the war, Trump received a briefing last week from Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, on options for restarting military operations, according to two sources familiar with the matter. U.S. intelligence assessments in recent months, according to an intelligence official and two other senior American officials, indicate that renewed strikes would not fundamentally change Tehran's negotiating position and would be even less likely to bring about the collapse of the Iranian regime.

Nevertheless, sources familiar with the discussions cautioned that Trump could still choose military action. They said he had been aware of the political risks before the elections but "simply didn't care." One source told Reuters that the likelihood of renewed fighting could now be greater because Trump has nothing left to lose politically with the midterms behind him, potentially making him more inclined to take a harder line against Iran and authorize further strikes.

Another source agreed that renewed operations against Iran were the most likely scenario. "He's planning to bomb Iran," the source said. "Don't listen to what he's saying. He held back because of the midterms. We asked him to wait until after the elections."