Newsweek, by Joe Edwards, on Climate, 13 November 2026

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About this analysis

Newsweek reports the Old Farmer's Almanac's account of how a strong El Niño could shape the coming US winter, and sets it beside the Climate Prediction Center's latest update and NOAA's winter outlook. The article attributes each forecast to its source and keeps the Almanac's own caveats about uncertainty. Nothing in it misleads the reader.

What it gets right

  • “a stronger El Niño does not necessarily translate to stronger storms but instead raises the likelihood of particular weather patterns”

    The article keeps the forecaster's caveat, so the reader learns that El Niño shifts the odds and does not decide the outcome.

  • “roughly a 60 percent chance for a "historic event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950””

    The article gives the agency's probability and its baseline period rather than stating a historic event as certain.

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