A Concerned Californian’s Guide to El Niño

A very strong El Niño flexed its muscles in 1982-83, and relentless storms pummeled the California coast. Houses fell into the ocean, piers were smashed in two, and beaches vanished when powerful waves dragged their sand out to sea. El Niño was not a household name then, but it soon became one for Californians, whose Pacific coastline is often the first area affected when the weather pattern’s effects come ashore. In the winter of 1997-98, another strong El Niño brought unmerciful storms, leaving at least 17 people dead and causing over $550 million in damage across the state.

The winters were disastrous and lived on in popular memory. Now scientists say this winter is almost certain to deliver the strongest El Niño on record, once again drawing dire predictions for how this winter will, or could, play out across the state. But the story doesn’t always unfold as expected. The winter of 2015-16 also brought a very strong El Niño. Like this year’s, it was, to that date, one of the strongest on record. As winter — typically the time of year when El Niño’s effects on the weather are strongest — approached, it prompted anxiety among residents and intense media coverage.

The state was living through one of its worst droughts in recorded history, and many looked to the rains that El Niño typically brings for relief. But while the winter brought active surf that eroded California’s beaches, it fell short on rain as many storms that would have crossed over into California got ushered into the Pacific Northwest instead. The state ultimately recorded much less rain than forecasters had predicted. So what about this year?

Here’s how experts think the next few months could play out. Video Large Waves Pound Beachfront Houses in California Residents had to evacuate over the weekend as large waves from Rachel, a post-tropical storm, crashed into beachfront homes in Long Beach, Calif. Credit Credit... Mario Tama/Getty Images We are having trouble retrieving the article content. Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings. Thank you for your patience while we verify access.

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