Britain is broke. Does Andy Burnham have the guts to fix it? Writes James Hanson

Forget everything that’s happened during Andy Burnham’s premiership until now. His first 100 days have, in purely political terms, been a success. Labour is leading the polls again, his first conference as PM went smoothly, and Burnham is the most personally popular of all the party leaders. But good vibes only get you so far. Today’s Budget is when things get real. The big question is whether this government has the guts to do what’s necessary.

Sadly, I fear they don’t. You wouldn’t know it from his matey appearance on Googlebox and his slick TikTok videos, but the prime minister is leading a country with huge structural problems. The UK has a three-trillion-pound national debt, meaning we spend more on interest than on defence, schools and prisons combined. Meanwhile, the benefits bill is ballooning, our armed forces remain severely under-funded, and Britain’s collective tax burden is now the highest since the Second World War.

To put it bluntly, Britain is broke. As a result, what is required from the Chancellor today is a bold, brave Budget. First, John Healey needs to lay out a detailed plan for meeting the NATO target of spending 3% of GDP on defence by 2030, and 3.5% by 2035. If he doesn’t, it would be a shameful dereliction of duty - especially at a time when the defence secretary is warning of a potential war with Russia within 1,000 days, and even more so given Healey’s own resignation from Sir Keir Starmer’s government over the issue.

The problem for the chancellor, as is so often the case, is where exactly the extra cash is going to come from. In truth, there can only be one place to look: welfare, which is by far the biggest area of public expenditure. One in four tax pounds now goes to welfare, costing us £330 billion a year - more than five times the defence budget. What’s more, it’s forecast to rise to more than £400 billion within five years. Britain is fast becoming a welfare state with a country attached.

Andy Burnham couldn’t have been more wrong when he said recently that national security shouldn’t come at the expense of social security. It’s no use having a benefits system if the country cannot defend itself, and when the total welfare bill exceeds income tax receipts, as it now does, the government is gambling with our future safety. No one should forget the comments of Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, who wrote in leaked messages to the now-disgraced Lord Mandelson: “Every meeting I have is: Who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others?”

This is where some political courage is required from the chancellor. Labour MPs are loath to support welfare cuts, not least because more than half of them have more PIP claimants in their constituency than the size of their electoral majority. Sir Keir Starmer found this out to his cost when his modest changes to disability benefits triggered a huge backbench rebellion that ended in a humiliating government u-turn that destroyed his political authority.

But if Burnham and Healey are serious about turning this country around, such decisions simply have to be made. During his conference speech in Liverpool last month, the prime minister spoke of his willingness to say “the things politicians usually avoid”. And yet for all his talk of saying it straight, all Burnham’s big announcements so far have been squarely in the Labour Party’s comfort zone, whether on social care, nationalisation or a reset with the EU.

The PM has been less willing to contemplate any announcement that risks upsetting his own MPs. That's why I’m worried today’s Budget will be another example of people-pleasing politics in action. Andy Burnham is a man who wants to be liked, by both the public and his backbenchers. But the moment requires a leader who seeks respect instead of popularity, and that means making some potentially highly controversial calls. Nothing briefed in the build-up to this Budget has convinced me the government will meet the moment.

Yesterday’s big announcement was the removal of tariffs on food items, including garlic, gherkins and boiled sweets. However much the PM and his chancellor hail such policies as ‘quick wins’ that give the public ‘breathing space’, these trivial announcements provide further evidence that this is fast becoming a government of gimmicks. If today’s Budget doesn’t include cuts to welfare and detailed plans for a rise in defence spending, the markets will draw their own conclusion: that Burnham and Healey simply don’t have the guts to do what’s necessary. 100 days in, it’s time for this government to stop trying to please the people and start trying to lead them. ____________________ Listen to James Hanson on LBC on weekends between 4 and 7am.

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