Dramatic i24NEWS poll: Winter shakes up the balance of seats on the right ahead of Israel's elections

The deadline for submitting party lists is approaching, and on Tuesday, Brigadier General (res.) Ofer Winter launched his party "Amcha Yisrael." After much speculation and many rumors, he presented a diverse list that includes Yoseph Haddad, Lali Deri, and others. Because the launch of the party changes the political landscape, i24NEWS conducted a seat poll via the "Direct Polls" institute, headed by Zuriel Sharon. If the elections were held today, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party would receive 26 seats, a drop of five seats compared to the i24NEWS poll from August 18. The Yashar party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, loses one seat and receives 23 seats. The Democrats party also loses one seat, standing at 10. Winter's new party posts impressive results, receiving 8 seats, which places it on par with the centrist parties. Yisrael Beiteinu, United Torah Judaism, and Bennett's B'Yachad are also each receiving 8 seats, with Bennett's party losing one seat, while the others remain stable. The Shas party loses one seat and drops to 7 seats, Otzma Yehudit remains stable with 6 seats, Ra'am strengthens by one seat to 6 seats, and the Joint List also records 6 seats. The Religious Zionism party closes the list at four, losing one seat, placing it at the electoral threshold. Suggested articles Poll: Gadi Eisenkot overtakes Likud, Netanyahu's bloc without a majority | i24NEWS Netanyahu emerges as the clear winner of Likud primary, without even being on the ballot- analysis | Gil Hoffman Eisenkot launches Cyprus billboard campaign targeting Israeli vacationers | i24NEWS The parties failing to cross the electoral threshold are Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut at 1.3%, the Economic Party at 1.1%, and Zionist Home, Unity, Israel First, Blue and White and Noam for Israel—all below 1%. The bloc map shows a division of 59 seats for the coalition that includes Winter, 49 seats for the opposition, and 12 seats for the Arab parties. Which camp does Winter belong to? We also asked in the survey, in light of Ofer Winter's declaration "to support a right-wing government, and to do everything possible to establish the widest possible right-wing government with as many Zionist partners as possible," to which political camp do you think Ofer Winter's party is most likely to belong? 16 percent thought to the anti-Netanyahu camp, 64 percent thought to the pro-Netanyahu camp, and 20 percent answered that they don't know. The sample was collected and prepared by Direct Polls Ltd., headed by Zuriel Sharon, for i24NEWS channel, on August 26, 2026, using a digital system combined with a panel, among 532 adult respondents (18+) representing a representative sample of the general population in Israel. The statistical sampling error is ±4.2% with a probability of 95%. Ra'am party leader backs two state solution in policy speech | Israeli election breakdown