Iran can still produce 50 ballistic missiles a month, despite US-Israeli strikes - report
An intelligence estimate has determined that Iran has the capacity to build approximately 50 ballistic missiles per month despite damage to its industrial capacity in the recent war, according to a Wednesday Bloomberg report.At roughly half of its pre-war capacity, months of airstrikes by the US-Israeli coalition in operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, as well as economic sanctions and a blockade, the Iranian regime is still more than capable of resuming hostilities in force.Despite major damage to its military infrastructure, the Islamic Republic of Iran "likely has at least 1,700 ballistic missiles remaining," and is building more every day, according to a Western official citing military intelligence reports."There could also be thousands of Shahed-type strike weapons remaining in its arsenal," Jim Lamson, a research fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College London and former CIA analyst for the Middle East, told Bloomberg.Shahed-based weapons systems are unmanned drones that include "suicide" variants that blur the line between traditional drones and cruise missiles.IRGC unveils underground 'missile city,' ambitions for striking USIran recently unveiled what it claimed was a new "missile city," with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) showing off the underground site, which included ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and their launchers in its stockpile.Fatah-1 medium-range ballistic missiles appeared to fill the underground missile city."Advanced missiles will surprise enemies with their battlefield impact," said the Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, Maj.-Gen. Ali Abdollahi.
Left out here: Leaves out what changes the picture
The outlet quotes Jim Lamson on thousands of Shaheds but leaves out his caution that Iran's remaining arsenal is extremely hard to size and that public estimates are 'all over the map'. It also omits that Iran's prewar stockpile and its rate of reconstitution are unknown. Without this, a reader takes the 50 a month and 1,700 missile figures, and the outlet's 'more than capable' verdict, as firm rather than highly uncertain estimates.
How we know
- Al Arabiya English reported“The exact number of both ballistic missiles and Shaheds is difficult to pin down”Iran producing 50 missiles per month despite crippled industry: Western intelligence (opens in a new tab)
- Arutz Sheva / Israel National News reported“all over the map”Report: Iran still has 1,700 ballistic missiles, produces 50 monthly (opens in a new tab)
"If the enemy makes another move against us, our response will extend beyond the region."
The unveiling illustrates Iran's efforts to show that it has preserved its missile capabilities despite American and Israeli airstrikes.Yesterday, after Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems unveiled its new "Super Ice" cruise missile, the IRGC responded by presenting its Fatah-2 hypersonic missile.
The missile, which reaches up to 18,500 kilometers per hour in parts of its flight, is feared by some analysts to be capable of reaching the mainland United States should Iran's ambitions be realized by overlapping its multi-stage space launch technology used to put satellites into orbit with its ICBM infrastructure.Iran has formally abandoned its self-imposed 2,000-kilometer missile range limit, and has actively begun threatening to strike US bases in Europe should attacks be launched from them, according to the Institute for the Study of War.Netanyahu, Trump backtrack on Iran war successes, plan further strikesIn March, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that “after 20 days, I can tell you, Iran today has no ability to enrich uranium, and no ability to produce ballistic missiles.”US President Donald Trump has made similar statements following the execution of the war.Trump stated on November 9 that nearly 85% of Iran's manufacturing capability has been destroyed, while warning that US forces remain "locked and loaded and ready to go" if necessary.Both leaders have made preparations to resume strikes on Iran because of the reported advancement of its nuclear weapons program.Last week, former US Central Command (CENTCOM) deputy commander Rear-Adm. (ret.)
Robert Stiles Howard said the failure of the United States and Israel to destroy Iran's ballistic missile and drone capabilities is "probably the most significant failure" of the war.Seth J. Frantzman, Yonah Jeremy Bob, and Aaron Glick contributed to this report.
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