Loss of NHS care, panic buying and violence - what war in UK would look like

A broken NHS, supermarket raids and breakdown of social order: a former civil servant has explained what war in Britain could look like – with 'no cavalry coming' A leading disaster expert has warned there is no “cavalry coming over the hill” to save the UK if war breaks out. Former civil servant Rob Doran doesn’t believe Britain will be faced with foreign boots on the ground or missiles raining down anytime soon – but there’s still trouble on the horizon.

Rob, who previously worked for the government planning for major national emergencies, says the biggest impact will be to supply lines and increased pressure on emergency services. The Cabinet Office’s National Security Strategy 2025: Security for the British People in a Dangerous World states: “For the first time in many years, we have to actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat, potentially in a wartime scenario.”

General Sir Patrick Sanders (Former Chief of the General Staff) said Britain needs to lay the groundwork to train and equip a "citizen army" while General Sir Roly Walker (Chief of the General Staff) warned that Britain must prepare to fight a war by 2027) . The government has introduced resilience initiatives urging households to keep basic supplies (analogue radios, torches, three days of non-perishable food and bottled water) to withstand shocks to power and logistics networks.

I n 2024, then-Defence Secretary Grant Shapps declared that the assumption of 'permanent home sanctuary' has expired. Cabinet Office national security assessments and Ministry of Defence planning have explicitly instructed departments to "actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat, potentially in a wartime scenario". The NHS would likely face “difficult decisions” over who deserves treatment. Rob also says that if Brits are forced to endure a major conflict, there won’t be anyone coming to save them.

“It could be entirely possible that, if for whatever reason, there was an increasing demand on health services, we might not be able to get the healthcare that you might expect,” said the now-director of Black Dog Crisis Management. “How did we adapt [during the pandemic]? Well, doctors had to make some extremely difficult decisions about who gets treatment and who does not. There isn’t a cavalry coming over the hill. “We are all in this together, and we all have to help each other, and that means helping the emergency services and helping government.”

Rob adds that people could find themselves unable to obtain vital medicines due to supply shortages, or hospitals might need to expand capacity to keep up with demand. Meanwhile, the nation’s police force will battle stealing and “panic-buying”. He said: “If the police are busy dealing with people fighting with each other at Tesco's over a toilet roll, what does that mean when your house is broken into?” I think the breakdown of social order is quite a big thing.

“That's when you lose the country.” Although he believes a nationwide breakdown is unlikely, Rob says it’s possible that random pockets of “disorder” could flare up. He added: “Violent protests, people trying to steal food from the supermarket, whatever. Yeah, I think you could get to that. “But I think that would be a limited number of people.” It would mean that actually, if you are a supermarket, you might say, 'Well, I'm sorry, we're going to have to close the store early’.

Therefore, no one gets any food because somebody's come in and tried to steal all the chickens out the freezer, whatever it might be. “It sounds quite flippant but we're all responsible for trying to maintain that social order. All of us have some responsibility in behaving in a way that is community minded. Being very selfish, frankly, is the worst thing you can do.”