UK drought: Why vegetables could cost more in 2027

Become an Independent member to bookmark this article Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Membership today. Join today Already a member? Log in T he potatoes destined for goose fat have spent the summer trying to become respectable roasties in some of the driest soil England has seen in years. The sprouts are out in the east of England, where water became less a natural resource than a luxury subscription. Parsnips have been asked to grow long, straight and photogenic in ground that at times had the consistency of a pub car park . Now we are beginning to see what all that actually did to the food. The trouble could extend well beyond Christmas. Farmers are now considering planting fewer potatoes, onions and carrots next year because they fear there will not be enough water to grow them. In Suffolk, one grower has already said he expects to cut his potato and onion acreage by 10-15 per cent. What began with smaller vegetables this autumn could mean fewer of them, and potentially higher prices, in 2027. Meanwhile, the effects of this summer’s drought are already visible in the pumpkin patch. After five heatwaves and a prolonged drought, some are warning that this year’s Halloween crop could be almost half its usual size, with thicker skins that make the fruit harder to carve. At Home Farm Pumpkins in Suffolk, farmer David Coulter said the combination of heat and lack of water caused pumpkins simply to stop growing. “In the heat, the pumpkins just gave up and stopped growing early, even when there was moisture available. With the lack of water and heat, it was a double whammy,” he said. Recommended How to get an extra £18 to spend on your food shop Garden centres are becoming a Christmas tradition. Here's how to survive your visit 5 ways to get more energy throughout the day That might seem trivial if the principal concern is fitting a sufficiently sinister face onto a pumpkin; less so when seen as another example of what Britain’s extraordinary summer has done to the food growing in its fields. Back in July, the warning from farmers was already stark . England received only 3 per cent of its average July rainfall by the middle of that month, following three heatwaves. In much of the south and east, there had effectively been none. River flows were down, soils were exceptionally dry and 1,327 restrictions were in place on licences allowing farmers to take water from rivers and other sources – almost twice as many as the week before. open image in gallery This year’s Halloween pumpkins could be almost half their usual size after a summer of heatwaves and drought ( PA ) In areas that depend on winter-filled reservoirs to irrigate crops through summer, stocks were reportedly down to around 30 to 50 per cent. It was a poor moment to discover that rain is not merely something that spoils a barbecue. Your Christmas dinner was having a difficult summer too. Three months later, the situation has hardly improved. By mid-October, England’s reservoirs were just 54 per cent full, 21 percentage points below the long-term average for the time of year. Parts of six counties have been placed in severe drought, while the Environment Agency has warned that farmers may struggle to refill their irrigation reservoirs over winter. Without sufficient rain, some may have to reduce the amount they plant next spring. Recommended Farmers warn food shortages are just 10 days away – the signs suggest they’ve already arrived ‘Our industry is surrounded by tragedy’: How farming became the deadliest job in Britain What happened to meat and two veg? How the cost of living crisis changed the British dinner plate The potato is the obvious place to begin. It is popular, dependable and accustomed to being treated as though it simply appears from the earth already peeled. In fact, potatoes require a great deal of water, particularly when the tubers are bulking up. Last year’s dry conditions produced a striking split. According to Defra , well-irrigated potato crops could yield more than 80 tonnes a hectare. Crops without irrigation produced as little as 30 tonnes. Some growers were watering every three days, applying roughly 25mm each time. The first casualty of dry weather is not necessarily the existence of a potato, but the kind of potato supermarkets prefer to sell. Dry conditions can mean more small tubers and fewer of the large, evenly shaped ones suitable for baking, roasting or turning into chips of the sort that arrive stacked like Jenga at a gastropub. And that concern has now become considerably less theoretical. McCain has reportedly been buying up potatoes from last year’s crop to keep production moving after this summer’s weather left some of the new harvest too small for processing. Watering crops is expensive. Pumps require energy, irrigation requires equipment and none of it is especially useful when an abstraction restriction prevents the water being taken in the first place. Two neighbouring farms can sit under the same cloudless sky and have entirely different harvests, depending on which one owns a reservoir. 16% Drop in broccoli yield last year Even those with reservoirs are running into trouble. A Suffolk farmer who grows potatoes, onions and cereals told The Times that two of her three reservoirs are empty. She has already sacrificed irrigation of wheat and sugar beet to conserve water for next year’s more valuable vegetable crops, and is now considering planting a smaller area. There are buffers. Britain harvested 5.5 million tonnes of potatoes in 2025 and ended the year with stocks of more than 3 million tonnes. Domestic farms supplied 71 per cent of the potatoes in the UK, while imports already play a sizeable role in frozen chips and other processed products. The greens present a slightly less comforting picture. Brussels sprouts are a concern, and last year’s drought gives a fairly sobering indication of what can happen. open image in gallery Less water can mean more small potatoes and fewer proper roasties ( Getty/iStock ) Around 60 per cent of Britain’s brassicas were planted in June and July last year for harvest through autumn, winter and the following spring. In extremely dry soil, plants established unevenly and yields fell even though growers had put more land into production. Lincolnshire is particularly important. It produces a great deal of Britain’s brassica crop, but many farms there have limited access to irrigation because the groundwater can be too saline. This is one of the less discussed difficulties of farming: sometimes there is water beneath the field, but it is the wrong sort. A plant that established poorly in June does not necessarily become magnificent because August turns wet Last year, total brassica production fell by 3.6 per cent. Broccoli yields dropped 16 per cent and production fell 11 per cent. Cauliflower yields were also down 11 per cent. Cabbage was badly affected because so much of it is grown in areas without an easy irrigation fix. Later rain can help some autumn and winter crops recover, but it’s not a magic undo button. A plant that established poorly in June does not necessarily become magnificent because September turns wet. Wholesale prices were already flashing warning lights during the summer. The average price of a homegrown cauliflower reached £1.62 a head in Defra figures published in July, up from £1.06 four weeks earlier and 89p at the same point last year. Calabrese – the type generally sold as broccoli – rose from £1.96 to £2.91 a kilogram over four weeks. Vegetable prices are seasonal and those rises cannot be attributed solely to the drought. Still, they showed how quickly difficulty in a field can become expense in a supermarket. open image in gallery Christmas sprouts depend on getting enough water months before December ( Getty/iStock ) Sprouts remain more question than crisis. If yields are weaker, shoppers may see smaller sprouts, less consistent sizes, more imports and fewer of the giveaway festive bags that make growers wonder why they bothered. Parsnips face their own indignities. Long dry spells can leave roots undersized, while sudden rain can cause them to split. The average wholesale price reached £1.41 a kilogram in July, 41 per cent higher than four weeks earlier, although still below the same point last year. Carrots, meanwhile, provide a useful reason not to panic. They need plenty of water, but Britain’s large commercial carrot growers have invested heavily in irrigation. During last year’s dry weather, yields remained steady at 83 tonnes a hectare. Defra credited irrigation with protecting the crop and said the UK was largely self-sufficient in carrots for almost the whole year. The catch, of course, is that irrigation is only useful if there is water available. With reservoirs running low, even growers who have invested heavily in equipment face an uncertain 2027. Pumpkins now offer perhaps the clearest illustration of what a difficult growing season can look like to shoppers. They have not disappeared. But some have failed to become the big, evenly shaped specimens we have come to expect. Growers have suggested that families faced with smaller, tougher-skinned pumpkins this Halloween might paint or draw faces on them instead of carving them. Gavin Lane, president of the Country Land and Business Association, has suggested the diminished crop also offers parents an opportunity to explain to children how weather affects the food we grow. Supermarkets have spent years training shoppers to expect vegetables of near-military uniformity. A bad harvest might remind everyone that food is not manufactured Beyond the vegetable tray, the consequences become slower and less obvious. The cereal harvest began early in parts of East Anglia, while later-sown spring crops struggled. Spring barley yields were expected to be weaker. Livestock farmers reported poor grass growth and concerns about the amount of forage available for winter. Millers can import wheat and adjust their blends. Brewers and maltsters have contracts, stocks and overseas suppliers. Farmers can buy extra feed, although they will not enjoy paying for it. open image in gallery Dry soil can leave parsnips undersized while sudden rain makes them split ( Getty/iStock ) The effect is more likely to appear in costs than availability. Vegetables show the weather directly. Meat and dairy carry it forward, as farms enter winter with less grass and silage and more expensive feed bills. Supermarkets have one particularly effective way of hiding all this: they shop elsewhere. British farms produced only 56 per cent of the fresh vegetables available in the UK last year. When the domestic crop struggles, retailers can bring in produce from abroad, assuming another country has enjoyed more stable weather and is willing to sell it at an acceptable price. They can also change the rules. A smaller potato still roasts. A crooked parsnip tastes much the same once peeled. A cabbage does not need to resemble a cannonball. A pumpkin does not stop being a pumpkin because it cannot accommodate a three-toothed grin. During previous difficult harvests, retailers have loosened their specifications and sold more undersized or imperfect produce rather than rejecting it. This may be the most sensible consequence of the drought. Supermarkets have spent years training shoppers to expect vegetables of near-military uniformity. A bad harvest might remind everyone that food is grown rather than manufactured. Recommended What happened to meat and two veg? How the cost of living crisis changed the British dinner plate There’s a reason hot countries have flatbread – and Britain’s heatwaves are changing baking too So will anything actually be taken off the menu this autumn or at Christmas? There should still be potatoes, sprouts, carrots, parsnips, bread, beer and turkey. What may change is where they come from, what they cost and how closely they resemble the picture on the packet. British produce could finish earlier. Imports may arrive sooner. Pack sizes may shrink and promotions may become