The multibillion-dollar reasons Trump hesitates to resume Iran war

T o judge from his Truth Social posts, President Trump is getting ready to resume the war on Iran. Ever since the summer cessation of bombing Iranian targets, Trump has been threatening to launch a new round of strikes to “annihilate” the Tehran regime. Most commented 1 Tiger kills man who ‘jumped’ into pen at Yorkshire Wildlife Park 786 comments Pete Hegseth, his war secretary, has assembled an even bigger armada in the region, including three aircraft carrier strike groups, ready to carry out his commander-in-chief’s orders.

Top stories 1 Starbucks ‘explores takeover’ of Chipotle Mexican Grill US business But beneath the public bellicosity, the president may be harbouring doubts about the wisdom of another “hot” phase of fighting. He has already vowed that nothing will happen until after the US midterm elections on November 3 . Who will win the 2026 midterm elections? Polls and predictions Advertisement The reasons for his hesitancy are clear: Iran’s retaliation to the US-Israeli assault caused billions of dollars of damage to US bases in the region, destroyed more than 80 American warplanes, forced the US military to use up large stocks of anti-missile interceptors, and persuaded the Pentagon to withdraw 12 long-range B-1 Lancer bombers from RAF Fairford, over fears they were vulnerable to a Iranian plot to attack the base with a swarm of drones.

Top stories 1 Budget 2026 predictions: when is it and what could change? Economics 2 ‘I went from high-flyer to house husband. Here’s how I beat my shame’ Family Finances 3 Retirement isn’t a cliff edge. It’s a window and you need to plan for that Pensions The 81 US aircraft damaged or destroyed — many of them targeted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with the assistance of satellite intelligence from China and Russia — included 12 F-15 Strike Eagles, nine of them as a result of Iranian fire; two A-10 Thunderbolt ground attack planes, both hit by IRGC strikes; seven HC-135 Stratotanker air-refuellers, five of them struck in an Iranian attack on a Saudi Arabian airbase; one E-3 Sentry airborne early warning aircraft, destroyed on the ground by a direct hit; and 45 MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drones, each costing about $34m.

With the war against Iran having already cost the US more than $43bn since it began in February — rising to $1bn a day at the height of Operation Epic Fury — Trump has to calculate whether a return to bombing would force Tehran to sign a deal the White House could claim as a victory, or trigger a fresh round of Iranian attacks in the region. The omens are not good. Despite a US naval blockade of Iran’s oil exporting ports, which has crippled the country’s economy, the regime has repaired much of the damage done by the US and Israel to its missile and drone launchers, and weapon production facilities.

The IRGC has said it is ready to strike back if US bombing is resumed. At the same time, it continues to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz , demonstrating its ability to threaten the safe passage of oil tankers through the chokepoint. Advertisement The cost to the US of repairing the damaged bases and replacing the destroyed aircraft would run into tens of billions of dollars. It has already pulled out from its bases in Iraq, some of which were damaged by Iranian fire, but insists this was a long-planned withdrawal.

A state-organised rally in Tehran in September 2026 ZUMA/Alamy A former senior US defence official said: “The damage to bases, munitions shortfalls, especially air and missile defence interceptors, as well as the aircraft losses, are all weighing on the decision-makers, although those concerns would not necessarily be [the deciding factor]. “Much will depend on how far the current Iranian escalation in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz extends — if, for instance, a US ship was hit with significant casualties — but these factors as well as political calculations will weigh heavily.

“The war is extremely unpopular. It started with a low-level of support and Trump has never really made the case for it publicly.” The other crucial factor relates to the future of RAF Fairford in Britain and other US bases in Europe. Advertisement The Pentagon is reviewing its deployments in Europe. It is expected to conclude by December that it should reduce its presence, leave Europe to shoulder the burden of conventional military capabilities and focus chiefly on providing the nuclear umbrella.

President Trump and Pete Hegseth, the secretary for war, during a cabinet meeting in July 2026 AARON SCHWARTZ/AFP/GETTY IMAGES The 12 B-1 bombers were withdrawn from RAF Fairford because the aircraft were sitting ducks at the base, parked out in the open. The US Air Force has estimated it would cost $4.2bn to upgrade Fairford and the two other bases used by the US in the UK — RAF Lakenheath and RAF Mildenhall — including protecting aircraft from drone and missile attacks, and building storage facilities for air-launched nuclear bombs.

The Pentagon review will determine whether the cost of upgrading the bases is worthwhile. Will the B-1, B-52 and B-2 bombers, regular visitors, ever return to the UK? The former senior US defence official said the withdrawal of the B-1s served a variety of purposes: “A vote of no confidence in force protection there, and raising the possibility of pulling back from the traditional US forward presence in Europe.” “The destruction of bases in the Middle East, terrorist threats, and the refusal by some Nato allies for overflight permission [during the Iran war] are serving the interests of those in the administration who favour an ‘America First’ emphasis on defence [of the US’s backyard in the western hemisphere] at the expense of maintaining a strong conventional deterrent as part of America’s commitments to treaty allies,” he said.

Advertisement “They are all too happy to say — ‘we won’t rebuild those bases in the Gulf and our aircraft aren’t safe in Europe’.”